Playing Putin against Xi against Trump

Trump has routinely praised Russian leader Vladimir Putin and called for improved US-Russia relations. Throughout his election campaign, Trump refused to condemn Russia’s actions in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, despite public pressure to do so. He has so far dismissed US intelligence agencies’ allegations that Russia-backed hackers had interfered in the US elections. His nominee for secretary of state, Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson, has represented Exxon’s interests in Russia for many years. Tillerson received the Order of Friendship from Russia in 2013 and expressed public opposition to sanctions in the past. Trump’s national security adviser, Gen Michael Flynn, has described Putin as "a totalitarian dictator and a thug" but is also in favour of better relations with Russia, particularly to defeat Islamic State (IS) and other jihadist groups.

Trump’s stance on China could not be more different. On the campaign trail, he blamed China for the loss of US manufacturing jobs and accused it of currency manipulation and engaging in unfair trade practices. He threatened to impose a 45% tariff on imported Chinese goods. His telephone conversation with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen was, in effect, the first official contact between the US and Taiwan since 1979, which violated almost four decades of diplomatic protocol. Trump also hinted that the US could abandon the One China policy unless China makes certain trade concessions. Moreover, Trump has picked economics and public policy professor Peter Navarro to head the newly created White House National Trade Council. Navarro is a renowned China critic; the title of one of his books is Death by China: Confronting the Dragon – A Global Call to Action, in which he describes China as "the planet’s most efficient assassin".

Trump’s attitudes, quite predictably, elicited different reactions in Moscow and Beijing. Russian officials are optimistic about positive ties with the Trump administration, to the point that Putin uncharacteristically refused to retaliate against Obama’s recent decision to expel 35 Russian diplomats over the hacking allegations. On the other hand, Chinese state-owned newspapers China Daily and Global Times have accused Trump’s team of adopting a "confrontational approach" and "a hard-line attitude" towards China. While Trump may not act on all of his promises (and threats) when he officially enters the White House, his divergent tactics towards Russia and China raise the question: how will Putin react?

The Russian leader would quietly welcome Trump’s rhetoric. Western sanctions have compelled Russia to pivot its economy towards China, increasing its reliance on its neighbour. For example, the two countries signed several major oil and gas deals in recent years, which would primarily allow Russia to export more energy products to China, attract Chinese investment in its energy sector, and attain Chinese loans to complete significant infrastructural projects. But while the Chinese have proved to be a reliable ally in Russia’s time of need, they have lived up to their reputation as tough negotiators, maximising their advantage in these deals. The relationship is largely uneven, with Russia being the dependent partner. Therefore, Putin would welcome any rapprochement with the US, which would demonstrate that Russia is not entirely reliant on China.

Despite welcoming a warming period with the US, Putin would avoid making any moves that upset China. He is well aware of the longevity of the Communist Party of China, unlike Trump. Although Trump could potentially revoke some of the sanctions, the move would be very unpopular within the US political establishment. There are also uncertainties over whether Trump would consider some of Putin’s other demands that contradict US policy, such as recognising Crimea, decreasing support for Ukraine and rolling back Nato enlargement. Moreover, Trump is highly unpredictable and relishes projecting strength and his ability to make deals. He is unlikely to acquiesce to Russia’s demands without expecting something in return, and at this stage, it is unclear exactly what Trump wants from Russia.

While Putin may welcome the opportunity to play off two major world powers, he will also worry that squabbles between China and the US could have a negative effect on Russia’s interests. Any major rift between the two countries would have an adverse effect on global commerce, leading to further difficulties for Russia’s struggling economy. Such a scenario could prompt Putin to assume the role of peacemaker between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, but under most circumstances, he would most likely seek to avoid any involvement.

Putin would much rather use Moscow’s positive relations with the Chinese and the incoming US administration to protect Russia’s geopolitical and economic interests.

This article was originally published in the Business Day:https://www.businesslive.co.za...