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North Korea

Despite sanctions and diplomatic isolation, North Korea has maintained the upper-hand going into 2018. Using the promise of talks and good behaviour, it will attempt to drive a wedge between South Korea and the US. Furthermore, Washington's efforts to contain the country's nuclear ambitions by improving the missile-defence capabilities of its allies is likely to damage relations with China and Russia, preventing the formation of a united front against North Korea and heightening regional tensions.
North Korea
2017 was ultimately a good year for North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, despite elevated tensions with the US, as well as the implementation of some of the harshest economic sanctions to date. With the alleged assassination of his elder brother, Kim Jong Nam, in Malaysia in February 2017, a potential rival was removed, ensuring the continued rule of his branch of the Kim dynasty. Additionally, with a total of 24 ballistic missile tests, and one nuclear test, being carried out throughout the year, North Korea’s missile and nuclear capabilities have improved greatly. Indeed, the Hwasong-15, the country’s latest missile, which had its first test on 28 November 2017, is reportedly now able to reach most of the continental US, potentially putting major cities at risk, including Washington DC and New York.

For South Korea, a major US ally, the consequences of a military conflict are unthinkable. Seoul, the country’s capital, is within range of North Korean artillery. A conflict involving conventional weapons alone would therefore be devastating to the city’s approximately 10 million residents. Moreover, as the headquarters of major international companies, such as Samsung, are based in Seoul, the economic impact of an artillery strike on the city would be felt worldwide. As such, South Korean President Moon Jae In is eager to deescalate tensions. In an apparent dÉtente, officials from both countries met in January 2018. Apart from an agreement to jointly participate in the February 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea, major outcomes from the meeting included the establishment of a military hotline. This is expected to lessen the risk of strategic miscommunications, such as joint USSouth Korean military drills being misinterpreted as a pre-emptive strike on North Korea’s nuclear arsenal, or an attempt to assassinate its leadership. 

Sanctions and diplomatic isolation have seemingly had little impact on North Korea’s pursuit of a nuclear arsenal.

US President Donald Trump has welcomed the apparent dÉtente between North and South Korea. He has even claimed responsibility for it, saying his bellicose rhetoric has largely been responsible for inter-Korean attempts to find common ground. However, North Korea will likely continue to try and use the promise of further talks in an attempt to pressure South Korea to suspend joint military drills with the US, playing the allies against each other by taking advantage of South Korea’s desire for peace. Seoul has already suspended all drills until after the Winter Olympics, largely to prevent Pyongyang from carrying out any provocations during the event. North Korea is therefore expected to use the threat of withdrawing from the bilateral talks to try win further concessions from South Korea without making any significant sacrifices. This will likely cause the current state of improved relations to collapse sometime after the Winter Olympics, especially as President Moon comes under increased pressure from both the US and largely conservative domestic sources. 

Meanwhile, given the improvements to North Korea’s arsenal and the unpalatability of a military strike on the country, the US is running out of effective preventative strategies. Sanctions and diplomatic isolation have seemingly had little impact on North Korea’s pursuit of a nuclear arsenal. The US will therefore have to attempt to contain the emerging threat by improving the missile-defence capabilities of its regional allies. Japan, for example, has decided to deploy the Aegis Ashore missile defence system to intercept missiles launched from North Korea. However, the deployment of these missile defence systems will be heavily opposed by Russia and China, as their missile capabilities will be undermined. As such, efforts to contain North Korean missiles has the potential to result in a regional arms race, which would have a detrimental impact on US relations with China and Russia. 

North Korea will therefore continue to have the upper-hand in 2018, as hostile relations between the regional powers will prevent a unified front against Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions, undermine international sanctions against the country, and contribute to strained relations among the multitude of players in the regional stalemate.

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