Mexico's Drug War Fails to Produce Results

With over 1,850 murders reported in November alone, 2016 capped off a worrying trend in violence in Mexico with a 21 percent increase in homicides across the country. There were significant increases in homicides in 24 of the country’s 31 states, with Guerrero, Morelos, Michoacán, Sinaloa and Jalisco, the worst affected. In total, over 18,915 homicides were reported in 2016, a large increase from the 15,566 in 2015. While this number remains far from the record of 22,800 homicides in 2011, homicides are undoubtedly on the rise in Mexico, pointing towards a new criminal dynamic in the country, and a failing government war against drug cartels.

An increase in homicides in Mexico is partly driven by the fragmentation of some of the country’s largest organised crime groups, such as Los Zetas and the Beltrán Leyva Cartel. In addition, the intensifying territorial wars between the Sinaloa Cartel and the Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) along the west Mexico drug corridor have also contributed to the increase. The growth of smaller criminal groups, such as Los Rojos, Los Ardillos, and Guerreros Unidos, has further complicated this dynamic. 

Nowhere has this been more apparent than in the Pacific Ocean seaside resort city of Acapulco in Guerrero State, a once sought after destination for many tourists. Acapulco has been at the centre of a violent inter-cartel conflict involving numerous organised crime groups all vying for control of the city’s lucrative drug trade. Over 500 homicides were reported in the city in 2016, almost half of all murders in Guerrero. Frequent shootouts in popular tourist areas, including near beaches and at high-profile restaurants, prompted the US State Department to ban diplomats from travelling to the city, and warn visitors not to travel outside of well-known tourist areas. Similar patterns are now emerging in other tourist hotspots, such as Cancún and Playa del Carmen. 

Upward trends in homicide rates across most of the country are placing renewed scrutiny on the government’s security strategy. In August 2016, the federal government said that it was going to launch a new, and more integrated, security plan to combat violent crime in the country’s 50 worst-affected municipalities, without providing any details regarding the strategy itself. Although the government subsequently reported that the strategy was working, record homicide rates in the proceeding months clearly contradicted this claim. Similarly, longstanding efforts by President Enrique Peña Nieto’s government to overhaul the country’s convoluted police forces, and unify them under one command, to address the issue have stalled due to largely absent political support. Instead, the so-called ‘drug war’ is set to continue to rely on over 50,000 soldiers deployed across urban areas and highways in the country. 

In 2017, President Peña Nieto’s administration will attempt to pass laws to regulate the armed forces’ role in policing, and perhaps even expand its mandate. As such, the militarisation of policing in Mexico – an ineffective strategy which has failed to curb crime since its inception over a decade ago – looks set to continue, with little prospect for an improved security environment in 2017.