Leaked US Map Over-Estimates Islamic States's Footprint in North Africa

On 03 August, the US news broadcaster NBC published a leaked ‘heat map’ prepared by the US National Counterterrorism Center, showing their assessment of Islamic State (IS)’s expansion as at August 2016. The map shows an IS presence in 18 countries, a significant increase from 2015, when the US State Department estimated that the group was operational in 13 countries, and previously from 2014, when it was believed to have a presence in only seven. This trend is counter to the current narrative being disseminated by the US and its coalition allies that IS is facing unprecedented territorial losses under sustained pressure from coalition forces. This is reportedly the case both in Syria and Iraq, where the group’s caliphate was first established, as well as in other previous strongholds such as Libya.

S-RM assesses that the map shows an exaggerated footprint for the group across North Africa, with the likely motivation of maintaining maximum precautionary vigilance. It also includes several discrepancies which are not consistent with more granular reporting. 

In Algeria, the map shows a large ‘official’ branch presence in the Kabylie, most likely referring to the presence of IS’ strongest Algerian affiliate, Jund Al Khilafa (JaK). While the location of JaK’s active members is accurate, the map suggests that the affiliate has a much larger footprint than reports on the ground indicate. As previously reported, the most recent estimates of JaK’s membership are between 60 and 65 militants, and it can be confidently assessed that the group does not currently have the capability to seize territorial control in Algeria. 

In Libya, it is clear that the map has not taken into account the military gains that have been made against IS to date, where the group’s official presence has been reduced to restricted pockets in Sirte and possible isolated remnants in the eastern conflict zones of Benghazi and Derna. The inclusion of Wilayat Fezzan in southern Libya as an ‘official’ branch is also somewhat misleading. While there are reports that IS retains a handful of affiliated individuals in the area around Sebha, the branch is aspirational at best and cannot be equated in terms of either presence or capabilities to other designated ‘official’ branches, such as in northern Sinai, where the group maintains an entrenched presence. It is likely that its inclusion in southern Libya reflects the declaration by the group in late 2014 that it was creating a province in the Fezzan. However, there has been no evidence that this declaration was followed by any sustainable allocation of manpower or resources by IS towards the south. 

The aspirational presence indicated in both Tunisia and mainland Egypt is similarly distorted and the inclusion of groups across northern Mali is not consistent with any known pledges of allegiance to IS by militant groups in that area, well known as a stronghold for regional rival group, AQIM. One potential explanation for this inclusion is that the map has indicated the presence of Al Qaeda affiliates with the possibility in mind that they could switch allegiance. This is speculative however, as there is no evidence that such a switch is anticipated. While the likelihood of asymmetric attacks by individuals inspired by the group’s ideology remains high across the region, this is not equivalent to the presence of established or even aspirational ‘branches’.