Knowing the Score: Terrorism and Hooliganism at the 2018 Russia World Cup

An estimated 1 million football fans are expected to travel to Russia for the World Cup in June and July, while more than 3 billion people are expected to watch the event on television. While security was managed effectively during the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, the World Cup poses a significantly more complex security challenge for Russia, not least as it is spread across 11 cities. Moreover, the World Cup is a target for both football hooligans and militant groups like Islamic State (‘IS’) due to the high-profile nature of the event. 

Russian hooligans have been involved in several violent confrontations with foreign football fans at the European Championships in 2012 and 2016, and have promised similar violence at the World Cup. Additionally, following the release of several IS posters indicating an intent to target the World Cup, authorities are concerned about the threat posed by terrorism. Yet despite the logistical challenges posed by the scale of the event, the Russian security forces will seek to mitigate the risks of terrorism and hooliganism at the tournament. 

HOOLIGANISM 

In the build up to the World Cup, international and domestic commentators have focused on the threat of hooliganism. Football hooligans (or “ultras”), are particularly active in Russia, with several large groups in Moscow and St. Petersburg. They are well-organised, trained in martial arts and abide by a strict program of sobriety. They also have participated in, or initiated, violent confrontations with fans from other countries several times in the last few years. During the 2016 European Championship in France, for example, Russian and English hooligans instigated violent street battles throughout Marseille resulting in 557 arrests and the hospitalisation of 18 fans. The threat of Russian hooliganism has been exacerbated by statements by the Fratria and Gladiators, two organised hooligan groups (or “firms”) affiliated with FC Spartak Moscow. Both firms have stated that they are “Kremlin foot soldiers” and English fans would “100 percent be targeted” during the tournament. Declarations by Russian firms that the World Cup would be a “festival of violence”, has reinforced this threat.

The presence of Polish, German and Russian ultras in Moscow for the first round of fixtures increases the risk of football related violence. In 2012, when Poland and Ukraine hosted the European Championship, 123 people were arrested after Russian hooligans rioted in the streets of Warsaw. Violence between Polish, German and Russian fans is often rooted in historical tensions, particularly the Second World War. English football fans face a heightened threat of violence due to the notorious level of hooliganism in English football in the 1980s and 1990s. Confrontations with English hooligans are seen by international firms as a way to reinforce their reputation, and Polish, Argentinian, Russian and Ukrainian ultras have all threatened to target English fans.

An additional consideration is a recent increase in hate crimes. There are more than 150 far-right groups with an ideology of racial, ethnic and religious intolerance currently active in the country, and they are frequently linked to football hooliganism. There have been 89 incidents of racism in Russian football since 2016 - specifically targeting black or Muslim foreign fans, during UEFA Champions League and Europa League fixtures. 

TERRORISM 

While the number of terror attacks have decreased since 2012, terrorism remains a risk to travellers in Russia. There have been seven terror attacks on public transportation systems since 2013, including the metro bombing in St. Petersburg in April 2017 that killed 16 people and three bombings that killed 42 people in Volgograd before the Sochi Winter Olympics. The most significant threat of terrorism at the World Cup is posed by IS. This has been reinforced by the release of several propaganda posters by Wafa Media Foundation, an IS-affiliated publication that frequently publishes pro- IS propaganda. IS is threatening to stage attacks in response to Russia’s involvement in the Syrian civil war. This is an attempt to portray an image of strength despite the loss of approximately 90 percent of its territory in Iraq and Syria.  

Since January 2017, Wafa Media Foundation has released posters urging IS supporters to attack Rostov-on-Don, threatened drone attacks at football stadiums, and published photo-shopped executions of high-profile footballers including Neymar, Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo. Islamist militants are active in the North Caucasus, particularly in the republics of Dagestan, Ingushetia, and Chechnya, and frequently conduct low impact attacks on police and military checkpoints. The most powerful militant organisation in Russia, the Caucasus Emirate, has renamed itself as Vilayat Kavkaz, or IS’s Caucasus Province, and has been responsible for the majority of attacks in the country. While attacks on security forces in the North Caucasus are highly unlikely to affect foreign nationals, the proximity of the region to World Cup venues in Volgograd, Rostov-on-Don and Sochi does somewhat increase the risk of an attack in those cities.

LIMITED OPPORTUNITY

Despite the intent by hooligan and militant groups to stage violent attacks during the tournament, the authorities have implemented several initiatives designed to limit the risk of attacks:

• The government has banned the sale or consumption of alcohol near official venues and instituted comprehensive ID checks.
• Legislation imposing harsh fines, bans and jail time for repeat offenders of hooliganism has been passed.
• Russian authorities have imprisoned and intimidated key leaders of prominent hooligan organisations, with firms moving confrontations with rival fans to forested areas to avoid security forces.
• Arrests of notable hooligans were followed by searches of fans’ homes by the Federal Security Service (FSB), the Russian security services, and telephone calls warning high profile leaders that they are being watched.
• According to the head of Russia Unite fans’ union, the FSB invited leaders from prominent firms to a meeting which detailed the strict consequences for initiating violence during the tournament.

Given the current pressure on violent fan groups, coupled with the significant police deployment planned during the tournament, the likelihood of significant hooligan activity at the tournament has certainly declined.

While IS has a precedent for successfully targeting football stadiums, following a bombing attack outside the Stade de France in Paris during an international friendly in November 2015, they also made threats to both the 2016 European Championship and the 2017 Women’s European Championship, which passed without incident.

To limit the opportunity of a similar attack, Russian authorities have implemented several measures which reinforce the capabilities of Russian security forces:

• Alongside comprehensive ID checks, the authorities have banned planes and drones near World Cup stadiums.
• Factories that manufacture chemicals used in the production of explosives have been closed for the duration of the tournament.
• Counter-terrorism forces will be deployed to stadiums, fan parks, public transportation networks and key locations, reducing the vulnerability to an attack.

Despite the presence of well-trained hooligans with an intent to target fans from visiting countries, and IS’s propaganda campaign declaring an intent to stage attacks at the World Cup, the Russian government appears to have implemented methods capable of reducing the risk of hooligan or terror related violence at the tournament. The sophisticated capabilities of Russia’s security forces, coupled with the lack of successful IS attacks in the country, renders the likelihood of an attack during the World Cup low.