Islamic State's Global Affiliates to Play Follow the Leader

The past year has seen the influence of the Islamic State (IS) militant group grow across the globe, with affiliates announcing themselves in Afghanistan, Yemen, Libya, Egypt and elsewhere. As these groups attempt to emulate the main organisation, they are likely to place an increasingly high emphasis on carrying out kidnapping operations in line with IS’s activities in Iraq and Syria, where the group’s propaganda videos featuring kidnapping victims serve to bolster IS’s reputation in the face of military difficulties. 

However, while IS in Iraq and Syria is to serve as the blueprint, the nature of affiliates' kidnapping operations will vary depending on local dynamics. For instance, where IS affiliate groups are weakly entrenched there is likely to be a dominant focus on kidnapping for propaganda purposes. In areas such as Tunisia’s Kasserine province or Algeria’s mountainous Kabylie region, IS’s affiliates are under significant pressure from the state security forces, being forced to keep on the move in order to evade security patrols and cordon and search operations. This constrains their ability to hold hostages for an extended amount of time, meaning that victims are more likely to be executed for propaganda purposes than traded for ransoms. 

Additionally, while the priority targets for these groups are likely to be foreign nationals, locals may also be targeted where foreigners are scarce. For instance, in October 2015, a group that has pledged support to IS in Tunisia’s Kasserine region – Okba Ibn Nafaa – kidnapped a teenage shepherd in the Mount Mghila area. The group subsequently published a video in which the shepherd is accused of being a spy for Tunisian security forces and is beheaded. The video is reminiscent of the many publications produced by IS in Iraq and Syria depicting the execution of ‘spies’. 

On the other hand, where IS affiliates have a stronger military presence and exercise control over territory, such as in eastern Libya, these activities are likely to expand to include mass kidnappings of ethnic or religious minorities. While victims of mass kidnappings are likely to be ransomed off, these types of kidnappings also often serve a major propaganda purpose for IS to demonstrate military dominance and absolute control over a particular area. 

With IS in Iraq and Syria coming under severe pressure from multiple military offensives by both international and local forces, the group is likely to reach out to its global affiliates to encourage the spread of influence in 2016. These affiliates in turn may increasingly come to rely on the propaganda effect of kidnapping operations, particularly where local dynamics and competition with other militant groups make it difficult to replicate the military successes of their namesake in Iraq and Syria.