Islamic State expands its operational area in north Sinai

Over the past week, the Islamic State (IS) affiliate in the Sinai, Wilayat Sinai (WS), has claimed responsibility for two attacks in the Sinai Peninsula, located a significant distance outside of the group’s usual areas of operation. On 30 July, the group claimed an improvised explosive device (IED) attack in the Sadr Al Haytan area in which two Egyptian soldiers were killed and five wounded. On 27 July, WS also claimed an IED attack near Kuntilla, on the Egypt-Israel border, in which one Egyptian soldier was killed and three wounded.

The majority of WS attacks in the Sinai Peninsula have taken place in and around the flashpoint towns of Al Arish, Rafah and Sheikh Zuweid in north Sinai. While reports over the past year indicate that WS has used the mountainous areas near Al Qosimah and Hasna (both approximately 80km south of Al Arish) as logistical routes and to establish safe-houses as well as weapons caches, the recent attacks in Sadr Al Haytan (100km to the south of El Arish) and Kuntilla (134km to the south of Al Arish) suggest that the group may be expanding or shifting its targeting patterns to a new operational area. This assessment has also been supported by recent Egyptian military actions: in early July, for example, Egyptian air force AH-64s conducted airstrikes on suspected WS positions near Bir Al Abd, 50km to the west of Al Arish.

It remains unclear whether this shift is a result of increased pressure from security forces in north Sinai, or whether the group is exploiting security gaps in other areas to elevate its profile. The Egyptian security forces continue to state that they are in full control of north Sinai, repeatedly reporting on high militant casualties in the north Sinai area as a result of security operations. However, given the current restrictions on the reporting of security-related issues implemented by the Egyptian authorities, it is not possible to independently verify reports from the area. Nonetheless, based on the patterns of ongoing WS activity in the region, it is unlikely that military operations in recent years have had a significant impact on WS’s capabilities. WS continues to stage IED attacks and shootings targeting security forces in Al Arish and Sheikh Zuweid on a near-weekly basis, a pattern which has been largely unaffected by consecutive Egyptian military operations. 

As recently as 29 July two police conscripts were killed in an IED attack in Al Arish claimed by WS. This adds to the likelihood that the attacks at Sadr Al Haytan and Kuntilla represent an expansion of WS activity in the Sinai region, although it is unclear whether the group will be able to sustain this in the coming months.