Holding Out On Peace:Insurgency in the Philippines

Upon assuming the presidency in 2010, President Benigno Aquino prioritised stabilising the restive Muslim areas in the southern Philippines. He worked towards a peace agreement with Moro insurgents to create an autonomous Muslim-majority territory known as Bangasamoro. However, popular support for peace negotiations dwindled in Manila following confrontations with rebels, while scepticism over Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF)’s dedication to the peace process hampered efforts to pass the Bangasamoro Basic Law (BBL), an essential tenet of a peace agreement signed between the government and MILF in 2014. The archipelago’s new president-elect, the bullish Rodrigo Duterte, will be the first Filipino president to hail from Mindanao. He has pledged his support for peace in the region, but observers fear that the long pause on progress towards passing the BBL may increase insurgent violence in Mindanao and create an opportunity for Islamist extremism to further expand in the region. 

The Moro conflict is centred on an ongoing fight for self-determination by the Moro people in the southern Philippines. The Moro people are a collection of tribal groups united by their Sunni Islamic faith in a majority Catholic country, and they account for approximately five percent of the Philippines’ population. Poverty, historical displacement, territorial disputes, social discrimination and religious and political extremism have driven diverse insurgent groups to fight for independence in a struggle that has been ongoing since the mid-1970s. Manila has pursued a strategy of slowly chipping away at the insurgency by signing peace deals with some groups and turning factions against each other. Although this strategy has weakened the separatist movement, it has resulted in a fragmented environment that has made it difficult to produce a comprehensive peace agreement. To date, the conflict has displaced more than two million people, and combat-related casualties, including civilians, are estimated to be between 120,000 to 150,000. Although the level of unrest has decreased in recent years, sporadic acts of violence continue to occur, particularly during negotiation deadlocks. 

Former President Aquino worked towards encouraging MILF, the strongest and most influential Moro insurgent group, to reach a peace deal. After several rounds of negotiations, in 2014, the Comprehensive Agreement on Bangasamoro was signed. Under the peace deal, MILF would decommission its armed wing, disarm, and in return, the government would establish a Bangasamoro autonomous region. In demonstrating its commitment to the peace process, MILF handed over some of its weapons in June 2015 and retired a small number of its members to civilian life. However, despite months of consultations and debates, the Filipino legislature is yet to approve the BBL. As such, Moro rebels are questioning the sincerity of the Philippine government.
 

With Aquino’s term ending in June 2016, there is uncertainty as to whether his successor, Duterte, will be able to deliver peace to the region. After more than two decades as the mayor of Davao, Mindanao’s largest city, Duterte is well-versed in southern politics and the complexities of dealing with Muslim Mindanao. During election campaigning, he was the only candidate to demonstrate commitment to peace in the region, meeting with MILF leaders and expressing his intentions to push for the BBL to be passed once elected. However, Duterte has a reputation of using heavy-handed tactics to crackdown on crime, earning him the nickname of ‘The Punisher’ for his zero-tolerance attitude towards lawlessness. This reputation is likely to induce trepidation in MILF rebels, accustomed to dealing with the Aquino administration. 

Whilst deliberations on the BBL are delayed, the Philippines will face a twin threat of elevated insurgent violence and growing Islamist extremism in the southern Philippines. In the short term, the risk of insurgent violence is likely to be heightened as various groups may renew efforts to challenge the incoming government and seek leverage amid the uncertainty. Although MILF remains dedicated to the peace process, there are reports that some of its extremist members are agitating for violence. This has raised concerns that the organisation could fragment, undoing all the gains made toward achieving peace in the last six years. In such a scenario, disaffected members may form a splinter group or defect to the radical Bangasamoro Islamic Freedom Front (BIFF), an insurgent group with a more militant Islamist orientation. Simultaneously, a stall in the peace process creates space for Islamist extremism to expand. Since the deadlock, local groups who have pledged allegiance to Islamic State (IS) are reportedly strengthening and spreading their influence. Furthermore, MILF (which shares the government’s concerns over IS radicalism) has warned that if they cannot prove the tangible benefits from peace negotiations, they will lose their ability to prevent disaffected Moro youth from joining militant Islamist groups. Ultimately, as long as pockets of political opposition towards the BBL remain, peace will prove elusive in Mindanao.