Heading North: Shifting Violence Patterns in Brazil

In late 2016, the São Paulo-based criminal group, Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC), ended its alliance with the Rio de Janeiro-based Comando Vermelho (CV) and set about trying to dominate the country’s criminal underworld. To this end, PCC initiated turf wars against its major rivals in cities such as Rio and Manaus. Federal and state authorities, already facing police strikes, an economic recession, and a deteriorating security environment, have struggled to cope with the increase in gang-related violence. Although Brazil has since reported a spike in homicide rates, incidents of extortion and kidnapping have not increased. Instead, violence appears to be shifting to the north of the country and organised crime groups are focusing on other revenue streams, such as cargo theft and drug-trafficking. 

Increases in violent crime in Brazil can also be attributed, in part, to a significant reduction in funds for law enforcement. Earlier this year, police strikes over wages and working conditions in Rio and Espírito Santo states resulted in widespread violent looting, 50 deaths, and eventually prompted the deployment of federal troops to restore law and order. Groups like PCC have exploited these conditions to expand their influence and challenge existing criminal monopolies in cities like Rio where gang-related violence has driven a 20 percent increase in homicides since 2016. 

Despite recent spikes in homicides and other crimes like robbery in cities such as Belo Horizonte, Rio and Manaus, government statistics suggest that there has not been a corresponding rise in kidnapping or extortion cases. Incidents reported in Rio declined from 17 express kidnappings and 450 extortion cases in the first quarter of 2016 to 14 and 260 cases respectively over the same period in 2017. Similarly, kidnapping and extortion incidents in Minas Gerais State reportedly dropped by 36 and three percent respectively over the same period. Reports from São Paulo and the Federal District follow similar patterns. 

On the other hand, levels of organised crime appear to be increasing in northern Brazil where a weak state presence has allowed criminal groups like PCC and its main rival, Família do Norte (FDN), to expand their drug-trafficking and cargo theft operations, particularly in states like Amazonas. Tiger kidnappings targeting bank employees are also a growing business for criminal groups in the region. Trends over the past decade show a shift in violent crime to the north of the country, a poorer region historically neglected by the federal government. If left unchecked, kidnapping and extortion in this region could increase significantly, posing greater threats to travellers and businesses.