Handle with Care: Navigating Yemen's Security Environment

With a countrywide ceasefire broadly holding and UN-backed peace talks underway in Kuwait, the conflict in Yemen has lulled following over a year of heavy fighting. Alongside these developments are the early signs of limited commercial reengagement in the country’s southern ports. However, while both pro-government forces and the Hadi-Saleh Coalition (HSC) rebels have recently made conciliatory gestures, significant challenges to stability remain – not least the widespread presence of Islamist militants, such as Islamic State (IS) and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). Nonetheless, as the government bolsters its presence across the south, foreign operators may gradually be able to count on improved security at key sites. 

Since the initiation of a ceasefire on 10 April, the internationally recognised government under President Abd Rabbu Mansour Hadi has turned its attention to the security situation in the south of the country. Backed by a Saudi-led military coalition, these efforts have been focused largely on AQAP, which over the previous 12 months had exploited the security vacuum in the south and seized control of several towns along the coastal region. Government operations against the Islamist militant group in April led to the recapture of several areas, including the major port of Mukalla, a stronghold for the group. As at April end, government forces are reportedly rebuilding local security institutions in Mukalla with assistance from a Gulf coalition military detachment. 

These developments reflect broader efforts by the Hadi administration and the Gulf coalition to re-establish the building blocks of a functional state in the south of the country. The provision of security for both foreign and domestic commercial operations is central to this objective. Within that, the security of the southern ports is no doubt a priority. Correspondingly, a perceived improvement in the political and security environment has prompted tentative commercial re-engagement by some maritime operators. For instance, at the start of April, bunkering operations reportedly resumed at the port of Aden for the first time in over a year, with the first international vessel making use of the port’s services on 8 April. As the Hadi government and Gulf coalition focuses on further improving the security measures at these facilities, the operational environment may become increasingly permissive for foreign companies already familiar with the country.

However, beyond the ports and similar priority sites, a widespread return of commercial activity would be premature given the enduring insecurity in the rest of the country. In the south, while many AQAP-occupied territories have been liberated over the past month, the militant threat remains pronounced, as recent reports indicate that the group has retained much of its strength by shifting its forces to other areas of control. Even if a government offensive were to reclaim all territories from AQAP, the group would likely turn to asymmetric tactics against government-associated targets in southern Yemen – which may extend to foreign business operations. Furthermore, IS also has an operational presence in Aden, where the group carries out frequent attacks on government and security targets. As recently as 28 April, a suicide car bomb attack, claimed by IS, took place outside the home of the Aden security chief, Shelal Ali Shayyeh, wounding two people. Such attacks illustrate that security in the south remains far from assured.

Further, the northern areas, including Sana’a, remain unstable due to the unresolved civil war. Although the 10 April ceasefire has reportedly been observed in the majority of conflict areas, significant challenges to the peace process remain. As talks have been ongoing, reports continue to emerge of intermittent skirmishes between HSC and pro-government forces around the city of Taiz in south-eastern Yemen, as well as in Jawf province on the Yemen-Saudi Arabia border. The peace talks themselves have been fraught with disagreements, having already been suspended once since starting. The current round of talks are based on the UN Security Council resolution 2216, which calls for the withdrawal of Houthi fighters from areas seized since 2014 and the handover of heavy weapons. This is a key sticking point. The HSC holds that the initial peacebuilding step should be the immediate cessation of coalition airstrikes and sorties and the formation of a unity government before any disarmament agenda is implemented. 

In light of this, the extent of commercial re-engagement is likely to remain limited in the coming months. Depending on local conditions, foreign operators may be able to rely on a reasonable degree of security at some commercial facilities in the south, as the Hadi government and Gulf allies focus on building a presence in these areas. However, the current security situation in Aden demonstrates the limitations of local forces outside of priority commercial sites. Until a negotiated settlement emerges and the southern government demonstrates its ability to effectively combat the extremist threat, Yemen will require careful consideration by the majority of foreign companies who are presently eyeing a return.