Going Ballistic: South Korea's Contentious Missile Defence Plans

North Korea’s successful test of the Pukguksong-2 medium-to-long range ballistic missile in February 2017 has prompted the US and its main East Asian allies, South Korea and Japan, to bolster their missile defence cooperation. Controversially, the US and South Korea announced plans within days of the test to move ahead with the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (THAAD) missile defence system, scheduled to take place in mid-2017. THAAD has already increased tensions with China, prompting fears of a regional arms race. Furthermore, THAAD’s deployment remains controversial in South Korea, and has become a focal point for opposition groups and political parties ahead of the December 2017 presidential elections. 

Whereas most other missile defence systems are designed to intercept their target during the ascent phase, THAAD is designed to intercept ballistic missiles at the apex of their flight path, between 40 and 150km in the stratosphere. Despite US and South Korean assurances that THAAD is a purely defensive system designed to counter the North Korean threat, its deployment is likely to escalate regional tensions. China is particularly concerned about THAAD’s potential implications for the regional balance of power, noting that it is the first step in a US-led missile defence strategy designed to surround China, contain its nuclear abilities, and stymie its growing regional influence. Chinese authorities are also concerned that the US government will use THAAD’s powerful radar to spy on their security installations, including missile deployments aimed at Taiwan. Unsurprisingly, Beijing has been vocal in its criticism of THAAD, with one Chinese high-ranking diplomat to South Korea reportedly warning that its deployment could “destroy bilateral relations in an instant,” and spark an arms race.

The Chinese government has reportedly already taken retaliatory action against South Korean firms to protest THAAD’s impending deployment. According to recent reports, Beijing has revoked the work visas of various South Korean nationals and has threatened to ban South Korean imports. Most significantly, the Chinese government allegedly tried to pressure a large South Korean-Japanese conglomerate to cancel a land swap agreement with the South Korean Defence Ministry, threatening the indefinite suspension of its construction projects across China. The swap, which was approved on 27 February, is key to THAAD’s deployment, as the land in question will house the missile defence system.

In addition to opposition at the regional level, THAAD remains controversial in South Korea itself and its deployment has incited protests in the country. Recent polls indicate that public opinion in South Korea is more or less evenly divided over the deployment. On the one hand, anti-war protesters, left-wing activist groups, and residents’ associations oppose the project and have staged regular protests against the THAAD deployment. The majority of protests have taken place at the proposed site, a rural district in North Gyeongsang Province, as well as in the capital, Seoul. On the other hand, conservative and moderate sectors of society have demonstrated support for the deployment.

Protests against THAAD’s deployment are likely to intensify in the run up to South Korea’s presidential elections, scheduled for December 2017. The project has become a focal point for opposition parties, as it is closely associated with the ruling Saenuri party and President Park Guen-hye. Coupled with the current impeachment process against Park for her alleged connection to a corruption and influence-peddling scandal, the Saenuri party has been significantly weakened. As such, the left-leaning Minjoo party is expected to win the election. However, it remains to be seen whether its primary candidate, Moon Jae-in, will support THAAD and increase collaboration with the US military more broadly. Although Moon has been inconsistent in his position on THAAD, most recently coming out in support of its deployment, many senior Minjoo party members remain opposed to it, threatening the future of the project. 

THAAD’s deployment is likely to continue to drive tensions in the region at large over the coming year. While war with China is a highly unlikely scenario, Seoul is expected to come under further diplomatic and economic pressure from the regional hegemon, impacting local businesses. Domestically, THAAD’s deployment is expected to deepen political divisions in South Korea and result in increased incidents of unrest. Whoever is elected president later this year will have to balance strong anti-THAAD sentiment, all the while cooperating with the US to deter further North Korean provocations.