Fool Me Twice: Venezuela's Renewed Opposition

Media reports suggesting Venezuela’s political crisis has reached a breaking point are a dime a dozen, and yet, embattled President Nicolás Maduro still manages to cling to power. Demanding Maduro’s resignation and long overdue elections, hundreds of thousands of demonstrators have staged almost permanent sit-in and occupy protests across the country since the beginning of April. At least 60 people have been killed and 350 shops looted in these demonstrations, the most sustained wave of countrywide protests since 2014. Despite growing international condemnation, Maduro, backed by the Supreme Court and the military, has refused to cede, vowing at least 20 more years of socialism in the country. Yet, by moving to strip the National Assembly of its legislative powers, Maduro may have overstepped the mark. For the first time, several top government officials in the ruling Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV), including the Attorney General, have broken rank and openly criticised Maduro. While Maduro still enjoys the support of senior military officials, Venezuela’s political deadlock may worsen in the coming months.

Although anger over hyperinflation, food, medicine, and basic goods shortages, increasing crackdowns on political dissent, as well as rampant violent crime have been simmering below the surface for several years, the latest protests were triggered by one poorly-judged government power play. On 30 March, the Supreme Court (TSJ), on Maduro’s orders, stripped the National Assembly of its legislative powers, ruling that opposition lawmakers were in contempt for allegedly blocking government efforts to alleviate the country’s economic crisis. The move was met with a fierce response from international bodies, regional governments, and even Maduro allies. In a rare rebuke of Maduro’s authority, Venezuela’s Attorney General, Luisa Ortega Díaz, denounced the TSJ’s “rupture” of the constitutional order. Facing a potential revolt among his own allies, Maduro asked the TSJ to reverse its ruling, but the damage had already been done. Rolling protests since the beginning of April have seen thousands of demonstrators block streets across the country, with Caracas the worst affected city. The Maduro government’s response has been firm: over 2,700 protesters have been arrested and 1,000 have been injured in violent confrontations with riot police and pro-government militia. 

Although Maduro’s presidency has faced significant pressure before, this latest wave of unrest may mark a new turning point. Unlike the 2002 and 2014 countrywide protests, during which the aim was to topple the socialist government, opposition leaders now have more modest and realistic goals. Firstly, opposition groups want a timetable for early presidential and long overdue gubernatorial elections. Secondly, they want jailed opposition leaders like Leopoldo López released and bans disqualifying other leaders like Henrique Capriles from running for political office scrapped. Lastly, they are calling for the TSJ and the National Electoral Commission (CNE), which are currently packed with Maduro loyalists, to be overhauled. Their strategy is also different this time around. Whereas opposition leaders previously appeared willing to negotiate with Maduro’s administration without any set preconditions, they have now vowed to continue protesting until their demands are met. 

Perhaps more importantly, there are also signs of growing dissent within government and military circles. Apart from Ortega Díaz, Health Minister Antonieta Caporale indirectly criticised Maduro’s government after her department released statistics in May showing a significant increase in infant and maternal mortality rates; she was subsequently dismissed. Maduro’s proposal to convene a Constituent Assembly to rewrite the constitution is also likely to incite further backlashes among ‘Chavistas.’ Rafael Ramírez, the current Venezuelan Permanent Representative to the United Nations, along with other prominent PSUV politicians have already criticised the proposal, which would effectively overhaul Hugo Chávez’s legacy. There are also increasing signs of dissent within the armed forces. At least three army lieutenants have deserted this year and 85 soldiers were reportedly arrested for refusing to obey orders. This discontent allegedly filters down to rank and file riot police officers who have been out on the streets defending an increasingly unpopular government for almost two months for little pay. 

In the face of mounting internal and external pressure, Maduro is trying once again to drive a wedge between opposition groups to stall anti-government protests and buy his administration time. He and the PSUV know full well that if they ceded to the opposition’s demands for free and fair elections, they would almost certainly be trounced. Instead, Maduro looks set to placate the opposition by feigning openness to reform. Already, in late May, Maduro instructed the CNE to set a provisional date for long overdue gubernatorial elections for December 2017. Maduro has used this divide and conquer strategy effectively before, most notably last year when he averted large protests by convincing opposition politicians to sit down for drawn out and ultimately fruitless negotiations. However, this time around, opposition leaders have been quick to cry foul, sensing Maduro’s ruse to fool them into negotiations, only for the election timeline to be scrapped by the soon-to-be-convened Constituent Assembly. Having learned their lesson, opposition groups are unlikely to fall for the same trick this time around. 

Despite mounting internal discontent among low and mid-ranking military and police officials however, Venezuela’s top military brass is nevertheless likely to continue to back Maduro. Senior active and retired military figures have reportedly been bought off with influential political positions and/or executive positions at state oil and gas companies, and also occupy a third of current government ministerships and half of the state governorships. In addition, US prosecutors have pointed to multibillion dollar ties between several Venezuelan military officials and the global illicit drug trade, suggesting that it is unlikely that top military officials would turn against Maduro only to risk prosecution and/or lose their influence under an opposition-led government. 

Venezuela’s current political crisis and stalemate ultimately come down to two irreconcilable visions of the country’s future. Maduro’s administration and top military officials appear bent on holding on to power at all costs, ostensibly to uphold the so-called socialist revolution, but also to protect their vested interests. On the other hand, the opposition ultimately wants to overhaul many of the leftist policies responsible for Venezuela’s dramatic economic boom and bust. Given a lack of transparency in the country, there is considerable uncertainty as to the extent of dissent within government and military circles. However, without the support of top military officials, it is difficult to envision how opposition leaders can force Maduro’s hand. Further military defections and dissent within government circles may place further pressure on Maduro to cede to some of the opposition’s demands. Until then, however, countrywide street protests look set to continue and are likely to intensify as Maduro tries to force through his Constituent Assembly plan.