Flying Too Close to the Sun? Macron's Ambitious Agenda for France
Presidential Election Results
The results of France’s presidential elections marked a watershed moment in the country’s political history, as neither of France’s main traditional parties – the Parti Socialiste (PS) and Les Républicains (LR) – secured a place in the second round of voting. Having resigned from President François Hollande’s government as economy minister in 2016 to launch his own centrist political movement En Marche! (now known as La République en Marche!, LRM), Macron was able to rise to power within just 13 months. Securing 66.1 percent of the second-round vote against far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, Macron, at 39 years of age, is now the youngest independent candidate since Napoleon. While Macron repeatedly stated throughout his campaign that his platform was “neither left nor right”, Macron has proposed ambitious, liberal, and pro-Europe reform in France.
As a former investment banker, Macron also intends to ‘cut the fat’ by implementing state spending cuts
Economic Reforms
As Europe’s third-largest economy, France has struggled for years with anaemic growth, high unemployment and a large budget deficit. To remedy this, Macron is seeking to pull France towards a Nordicstyle economic model that combines stimulus packages with fiscal discipline. On the one hand, he reportedly plans to inject EUR 50 billion into key areas of the economy. Social welfare is one key area of expansion for Macron, as he plans to render entrepreneurs and self-employed individuals eligible for unemployment benefits. On the other hand, as a former investment banker, Macron also intends to ‘cut the fat’ by implementing state spending cuts of EUR 60 billion over five years. Notably, he plans to reduce spending by the French state to 52 percent of annual economic output, from the current 55 percent - the highest in the EU. To achieve this, he will cut 120,000 jobs from France’s bloated public sector whilst keeping the budget deficit below three percent of annual GDP, a goal he claims will be achieved by the end of this year.
Labour Reforms
France’s unemployment rate has hovered at roughly 10 percent since 2013, one of the highest in the EU. More worryingly, almost a quarter of young French people are now reportedly jobless. French businesses have blamed this situation on the country’s rigid labour regulations with several high-profile multinational firms recently announcing their intent to relocate their operations outside of France. Even former French Prime Minister Manuel Valls has commented on the situation, calling the country’s 3,800-page labour code “unreadable”. In line with his pro-business approach, Macron now reportedly intends to restructure France’s labour relations. While he has promised to leave pensions and the retirement age intact, Macron is already planning to pass a labour reform bill through presidential decree in September. The planned bill would give companies more freedom to discuss working hours and wages with employees rather than having to comply with sector-wide rules.
Reforming the EU
Amid rising Euroscepticism throughout Europe, Macron has also pledged to take a leading role in reforming the EU, stating, “we must collectively recognise that the euro is incomplete and cannot last without major reforms”. To this end, he has proposed that member states extend the Eurozone’s remit to include both fiscal and political union to establish a common Eurozone Treasury, headed by a finance minister. Under this plan, member states would contribute a part of their tax revenues to a central treasury that would allocate funds across the Union, while a Eurozone parliament would hold the treasury to account. Macron is serious about this plan; on his first day in office, Macron met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel to discuss these possible reforms, and the two heads of state agreed to draft a “roadmap for Europe” together. However, while both parties have noted that they are open to amending EU treaties to foster an “ever greater union”, France will likely have to adopt tax cuts and deregulate its labour market to revitalise its economy before any EU reform agreement can be reached.
Immediate Challenges
Macron’s immediate challenge to implementing these reforms lies in securing a parliamentary majority in the June legislative elections. While Macron may have won a decisive victory in the presidential run-off, many who voted for him reportedly used their ballots to strategically block Le Pen from taking office, suggesting that the French public may not necessarily support his proposed policy plans. Indeed, major unions, including the Confédération Générale du Travail, are already reportedly preparing to fight amendments to the labour code.
To improve his odds, Macron has fielded candidates from the left, right and from civil society for his party. In this regard, he has poached several popular high-ranking members from establishment parties, including Bruno Le Maire from the LR, François Bayrou from the centrist Modem Party, and Jean-Yves Le Drian from the PS. He has also filled several positions in his cabinet with political newcomers to demonstrate his commitment to political renewal.
However, Macron’s party is not the only one looking to rally support. While the PS is facing internal discord after its poor performance in the presidential elections and is unlikely to secure more than 10 percent of the legislative vote, the LR and the Front National are working independently to secure enough seats to prevent an LRM majority. If the LRM fails to secure 290 seats out of the 577 constituencies for a parliamentary majority, a coalition government will be required and Macron’s proposed reforms are unlikely to be enacted. In the worst-case scenario, the June elections deliver a majority to Macron’s opponents, effectively tying his hands and reducing him to that of a figurehead. However, more recent polls indicate that the LRM could secure between 280 and 300 seats in the election, suggesting that a majority may just be in reach for the party.
The parliamentary elections will be an early litmus test of public support for Macron’s agenda. Even if Macron secures a victory, enacting such ambitious reforms is likely to be arduous, as he will need to work to convince the public that his vision will move France forward. Whether France’s new president can charm an entire nation for the second time remains to be seen.