Flare Ups in Nagorno-Karabakh

2016 saw the most significant escalation in 20 years in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh. From 1 - 5 April, fighting killed an estimated 350 military personnel and civilians, although the actual number could be higher. Further fighting in August killed more than a dozen soldiers. Similar to previous incidents of violence, both parties have accused one another of violating the ceasefire first. While border skirmishes by Armenian and Azerbaijani military personnel have been reported since the mid-1990s, there has been a notable increase in violence since 2014, a trend likely to continue in 2017. There is a high likelihood that both the Armenian President, Serzh Sargsyan, and his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, will manipulate this conflict to shore up their declining domestic popularities this year. 

In Armenia, there have been large, anti-government protests over unpopular government policies, such as rising energy prices, and corruption in recent years. Many opposition activists view the December 2015 constitutional reforms to change from a presidential to a parliamentary system as a ploy by President Sargsyan to extend his stay in power. They suspect that once his second term ends in 2018, he will become prime minister. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, has been experiencing an economic downturn over the last two years due to depressed oil prices. In January 2016, there were several protests over inflation and unemployment across the country. There were also large but peaceful protests by opposition groups against constitutional amendments in September 2016; one of the amendments extends presidential term limits from five to seven years. 

Thus, both Presidents Sargsyan and Aliyev would likely seek to heighten tensions along the border in 2017, in order to shift attention away from their failures to address domestic political and socioeconomic grievances. However, they would also try to avoid a major inter-state conflict, which would have an adverse impact on both countries’ struggling economies. In the event of an escalation of border violence, just as in 2016, Russia is likely to mediate between the two countries. Russia, along with France and the US, co-chairs the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group, which was created in 1992 to oversee a negotiated settlement to the conflict. Russia is, however, by far the most influential external player in this conflict. While it has played a stabilising role by negotiating previous ceasefires, there have been allegations that by selling weapons to both Armenia and Azerbaijan, Russia also indirectly sustains the conflict.