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First Strike: The Islamic State in Indonesia
The Islamic State's recent attack in Jakarta demonstrates that the group has gained increasing support in Indonesia, despite strict counter-terrorism efforts by the government, writes Mandira Bagwandeen
On 14 January, the Islamic State (IS) militant group claimed responsibility for a terror attack that consisted of several bomb blasts and gunfire in the Indonesian capital, Jakarta. At least eight people, including five militants, were killed, and over 20 others injured in a series of attacks concentrated around Thamrin Street, a popular shopping and business quarter in the capital.The mastermind behind the attack has been identified as BahrunNaim, leader of the militant group Katibah Nusantara, a dedicated South-east Asian combat unit within IS in Syria. However, at the time of writing, it remains unclear as to whether the group that carried out the attack consisted of local members of Katibah Nusantara, foreign fighters or IS sympathisers. Regardless, this latest incident has highlighted counterterrorism failures in the country, as by failing to contain the promotion of IS and its ideologies, the group has been able to gain a foothold in Indonesia.
One of the primary ways in which IS has established a presence in Indonesia has been through foreign fighters.According to recent estimates, between 500 to 700 Indonesians have reportedly travelled to the Middle East to fight for IS since 2014, and, in November 2015,the State Intelligence Agency announced that 100 fighters had returned home.These fighters are likely to have returned more radicalised and with sophisticated combat skills. They also pose a greater threat upon their return as they are likely to orchestrate attacks in Indonesia, recruit fighters, and procure funding for the organisation. In Indonesia and Southeast Asia more broadly, foreign fighters are likely to carry out recruitment initiatives for the Katibah Nusantara specifically.
IS has also been able to establish a presence in Indonesia through self-radicalisation propaganda. Several radical Islamist organisations, including the Forum of Islamic Law Activists (FAKSI), have openly campaigned for IS through public gatherings and social media sites, for example. Such organisations are likely to encourage individuals to become foreign fighters or stage lone wolf attacks in their own capacity. Katibah Nusantara has also played an active role in this regard, as the organisation has expanded its recruitment drive for supporters in Southeast Asia through the use of videos and printed press that promotes IS in the Malay language.
Lastly, IS has managed to garner the support of several domestic militant organisations in Indonesia. Leaders of terror groups such as Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), Jamaah Ansharut Tauhid (JAT), and the Mujahideen Indonesia Timor (MIT) have pledged allegiance to IS since 2014. However, while this has increased fears of a revival of domestic jihadist-inspired terrorism that was experienced in the early 2000s, due to a significant crackdown on domestic terror cells, these groups have limited capabilities and manpower and pose a limited threat.
In light of these developments, signs that a direct or inspired IS attack in Indonesia was imminent was evidenced in recent months by the arrest of dozens of people suspected of having ties to the group and the foiling of planned attacks by IS sympathisers. Though security forces prevented several potential IS attacks in 2015, the Indonesian government failed to implement legal measures to stem support for the organisation in the country. There are no laws in Indonesia that prohibit the membership of IS,holding meetings in support for the organisation, and training and fighting with the group abroad. As such, prosecutors have had to rely on other offences, such as links to domestic terror groups and passport violations to place IS members and sympathisers in prison. The recent attack in Jakarta points to this lack of legal support to make pre-emptive arrests and verifies the need to strengthen legislative measures to mitigate the IS threat in Indonesia.
President Joko Widodo has acknowledged this discrepancy and since called for revisions to Indonesia’s anti-terrorism laws. The proposed changes would make it easier for security personnel to arrest anyone suspected of planning an attack, hold suspects for longer than a week without charge, and make it illegal for Indonesians to fight abroad with militant organisations. These changes are expected to be approved by mid-2016.
While the recent Jakarta attack was not as sophisticated as the November 2015 Paris attack, the incident was enough to highlight the group’s ability to strike in Southeast Asia. The attack is a clear announcement of IS’s presence in Indonesia, instilling the fear of a potentially more destructive attack in the country in the near-term, particularly in light of recent counterterrorism failures.