Ethiopia's security in question: The rise of the Oromians

Peace, security and stability are no longer guaranteed in Ethiopia. Despite the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF)’s success rate in suppressing opposition movements since it took power from the communist ‘Derg’ regime in 1991, the latest round of political violence is proving a challenging feat. The Oromo protests have continued to gain widespread support and have inspired of the reappearance of other opposition groups across the country. Whilst the protests began in opposition to alleged land grabbing, it has become increasingly apparent that they are deep-rooted in issues of political marginalisation and lack of democratic process in the country. 

Despite suppression of the press and social media, the current Oromo protests have gained significant and widespread traction. Whilst only a few major incidents have been reported in the international press, violent protests have broken out in over 150 towns and villages across Oromia in the last six months. The largest protests have been concentrated in East Harange, with substantial unrest also reported in West Arsi and West Shewa. Heavy-handed responses from the security services have also resulted in civilian fatalities with the total number of fatalities in incidents of unrest in the first five months of 2016 higher than it has been for over a decade. If this rate continues; 2016 will have double the amount of fatalities in incidents of unrest in over ten years. The high frequency and ubiquitous nature of the protests is testament to their significance and evidence that they are unlikely to quickly subside without a substantial political settlement. 

Although the Oromo protests were originally affiliated with discontent against the Addis Ababa expansionary ‘Master Plan’, their continuation, despite the plan being revoked in January 2016, is testament to the deep-rooted political marginalisation felt by the Oromian people. With the EPRDF celebrating 25 years in power, hopes of Oromian representation in government through democratic means have now all but faded, and many feel a political settlement is highly unlikely. Although these current protests may not be sufficiently organised to effect any substantive changes in the short term, the fundamental grievances that form the foundation of these protests are not going to disappear, and will continually re-emerge if not addressed.

The momentum sustained through these protests has further inspired other prominent opposition groups around the country. Whilst the protests have been characterised by a lack of cohesion and leadership over the past six months, if multiple groups are able to coordinate their movements effectively, then the dissipation of these protests will be increasingly unlikely. Already for example, on 07 May, Abdirahman Mahdi, a senior commander of the Ogaden National Liberation Force (ONLF), responsible for several campaigns of political unrest in the Somali Region over the past two decades, announced a possible joining of forces with the Oromian opposition groups. Meanwhile several of the opposition groups also signed a cooperation agreement on 10 May 2016. 

Despite a recent lack of international and domestic publicity, the Oromo protests continue to gain momentum and are increasingly likely to become sustained over the short to medium term. Whether or not they will escalate to the point that they will effect long-term changes will largely hinge on the state’s ability to financially resource a security crackdown, address the fundamental political grievances of the Oromian people, and prevent further coordination and collaboration with other provincial opposition groups.