Duque and the Deal

On 7 August 2018, as Colombia’s new president, the right wing former senator Iván Duque, was inaugurated in Bogotá, protesters congregated in several cities throughout the country. The countrywide “March in Defence of Life, Peace and Democracy” was led by left-wing activists and political parties, including demobilised members of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, FARC) militant group. While not overtly protesting Duque’s inauguration, demonstrators voiced their concerns over one of the president’s primary policy positions, namely, his opposition to the ground-breaking 2016 peace deal brokered between predecessor, Juan Manuel Santos, and the now largely demobilised FARC.

Peace VS Justice 

The 2016 peace deal brought an end to a conflict spanning 50 years in which 260,000 individuals were killed and millions more were displaced. Following the deal’s ratification, FARC underwent large-scale demobilisation, which saw the integration of several members, including militant leaders, into mainstream politics. However, President Duque is a vocal sceptic of the peace deal, and much of his campaigning centred on a promise to renegotiate the agreement. President Duque believes the deal was too lenient in allowing former militant rebels to serve as legitimate lawmakers. During his inauguration speech, the president promised to address the “structural flaws” of the deal so as to “ensure that the victims get…truth, proportional justice [and] reparations”. 

Simultaneously, on the streets of at least 36 Colombian cities and municipalities, thousands of protesters called on the new leader to abide by, and implement the peace deal. Demonstrators fear a significant deterioration in the country’s security environment should scepticism over the deal’s efficacy spread. Since 2016, pockets of FARC dissidents opposed to the peace deal have continued conducting attacks against Colombian armed forces and have participated in violent criminal activities, particularly along Colombia’s eastern plains. Mounting uncertainty over how President Duque will seek to amend, or dismantle, the peace deal, are likely to further discourage dissident members from demobilising, while fostering scepticism amongst those militants already re-integrated into society.

Stop the Killings 

Alongside calls to respect the peace deal, participants of the “March in Defence of Life, Peace and Democracy” protested the killing and intimidation of hundreds of community leaders throughout the country. Although military casualties have dropped since FARC’s demobilisation, grassroots organisations and social leaders seeking to further peace initiatives on the ground have been systematically targeted by militant and criminal groups. 

Over 300 individuals have been killed over the last two years, with at least 123 killings taking place in the first six months of 2018. These incidents are often linked to bids for territorial control by rival militant and criminal groups, including FARC dissident groups and others who have filled the void following FARC’s demobilisation, such as the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (National Liberation Army, ELN). This has resulted in a number of indigenous community leaders being specifically targeted. For example, the majority of targeted killings have taken place in Colombia’s western Cauca Department, one of the country’s primary coca-growing regions, whose population comprises a large proportion of AfroColombian and indigenous communities.

While President Duque has promised to tackle the issue, many Colombians remain sceptical of his resolve and ability to do so, as the president took a hard line with the ELN as part of his emphasis on the rule-of-law during the presidential campaign. However, President Duque appears to have softened his rhetoric in this regard. Having previously asserted that any peace talks could only proceed if the ELN agreed to retreat into predesignated zones in the country, the incumbent has since dropped this demand, stating that a unilateral ceasefire is his primary prerequisite. Furthermore, during his inauguration speech, the president declared his administration’s intention to meet with international stakeholders, including the United Nations (UN) and the Catholic Church, who have supported past dialogue initiatives between ELN leadership and Colombian officials under the Santos administration. 

The ELN has also indicated its willingness to move ahead with the negotiations, as confirmed by ELN delegation leader, Pablo Beltrá, in an interview on inauguration day. However, the following day, on 8 August, ELN militants abducted three soldiers in Arauca Department, east Colombia, the second kidnapping perpetrated by the group in a week. These incidents continue to cast doubt over the group’s commitment to reinitiate peace talks. Thus, while both parties maintain the willingness to return to the table, given their vast ideological differences and the fragility of past ceasefire agreements, an impending breakthrough remains highly unlikely in the coming 12 months, leaving targeted communities in a precarious situation for the foreseeable future.

It’s Who You Know 

Given the many challenges facing President Duque as he embarks on his first year in office, further instances of civil unrest in opposition to his administration’s policies remain highly likely. Furthermore, President Duque will have to do some careful navigation on the political front to secure his support base and move forward with his political agenda. The president maintains the support of the powerful Democratic Centre party, launched by his close ally and mentor, former president Alvaro Uribe, who will lead the party in Parliament, ensuring President Duque has the support of a working majority. However, in July, Uribe resigned from his seat on the Senate. His resignation follows allegations that he had bribed witnesses claiming he maintained links to the Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia (United Self-Defenders of Colombia, AUC), a right-wing paramilitary and drug-trafficking group which had disarmed during Uribe’s presidency. Although Uribe denies the allegation, the cloud hanging over the prominent politician will likely mar Duque’s presidency and add fuel to the fire of his political opponents. 

Both the investigation of Uribe, and President Duque’s handling of the FARC peace agreement, including a possible restructuring thereof, are likely to serve as flashpoints for further civil unrest in the country. While the Colombian electorate has largely accepted the outcome of the election, the heightened sensitivity around the implementation of the peace deal will encourage further widespread public demonstrations. Already, tensions have intensified. On 15 August, hundreds of left-wing activists and student protesters in Bogotá and Medellín participated in violent demonstrations commemorating the death of Jacobo Arenas, a prominent former FARC guerrilla leader, and criticised President Duque for backtracking on the ongoing peace process. The protesters reportedly threw rudimentary incendiary devices at riot police, who responded with tear gas and water cannon. 

Furthermore, given ongoing uncertainty over President Duque’s ability to curb militancy and crime in some of Colombia’s poorly governed regions, further rallies in support of rights and land activists are also likely. Needless to say, both the public at large and President Duque’s political opponents will be keeping close tabs on his every move. In order to avoid further incidents of widespread civil unrest, the president, who is the youngest Colombian leader in over a century, will have to tread carefully as he navigates through the first year of his presidential term.