Crowdsourcing Terrorism: The Islamic State Threat in Australia
In early August 2017, counter-terrorism police in Sydney announced that they had foiled what local media subsequently referred to as “the most destructive plot concocted on Australian soil.” Two brothers, Khaled and Mahmoud Khayat, were arrested in suburban Sydney on 29 July, and subsequently charged, over their alleged role in the scheme. The pair, who are dual Lebanese-Australian nationals, reportedly received instructions from an unidentified Islamic State (IS) commander based in Syria via Telegram, an encrypted messaging app. The brothers also received bomb-making materials, which were shipped to Australia via Turkey, directly from IS.
The plot had two parts. The first was to blow up an Abu Dhabi-bound Etihad flight by planting a bomb in the check-in luggage of an unsuspecting passenger, reportedly the suspects’ brother, who was not involved in their militant activities. If successful, the plot would likely have resulted in the deaths of approximately 400 passengers. The second was to release a poisonous chemical agent, identified by local authorities as hydrogen sulphide, in a crowded civilian area, such as a subway station.
The case underscores the continued threat of transnational, IS-directed terrorism in Australia. However, plots of this nature are relatively rare and the vast majority of attacks in the country’s recent past have been implemented by radicalised individuals inspired by, rather than instructed by, the militant group. While these individuals typically carry out attacks in its name, there is generally no operational input from IS. The group is happy to claim credit for such attacks, and often encourages would-be perpetrators to carry out attacks via social media and encrypted chat groups in what counter-terrorism specialists refer to as “crowd-sourced terrorism.”
According to a report by the US Department of Homeland Security, Australia is the third most targeted Western country for IS directed and inspired attacks, which it shares with the UK. The US and its interests abroad are the most targeted, followed by France. An estimated 120 Australian nationals, 40 of whom are women, have reportedly left the country to go fight alongside IS in Iraq and Syria. The group has suffered significant territorial losses between 2016 and 2017, including the loss of Mosul, Iraq, in July 2017. These losses have raised concerns of battle-hardened foreign fighters returning to Australia to carry out further terrorist attacks, either as so-called lone wolves, or as small militant cells.
According to a report by the US Department of Homeland Security, Australia is the third most targeted Western country for IS directed and inspired attacks, which it shares with the UK.
The Australian government has taken steps to mitigate the threat, notably by passing legislation allowing the authorities to strip foreign fighters of their Australian citizenship in 2015. Many Australian IS fighters and sympathisers, including the Khayat brothers, are dual nationals, which makes the process easier. The first successful case took place in February 2017, when the authorities stripped prominent IS militant Khaled Sharrouff of his Australian citizenship. Additionally, the Australian government is reportedly pressuring encrypted messaging companies, such as Telegram, to cooperate with counterterrorism investigations.
In addition to the Etihad plot, Australian counter-terrorism police prevented 15 imminent attacks between 2014 and 2017. These included plans to kidnap and behead members of the public in Sydney and Brisbane; detonate explosives at a Mothers’ Day event; bomb several government and military buildings; as well as plots to stab and shoot police officers, soldiers, and civilians during the country’s Anzac Day celebrations. Unlike the Khayat brothers, who were middle-aged, the majority of suspects in these foiled attacks were teenage boys and disaffected young men under the age of 30.
There have been six successful terrorist attacks in Australia since 2014, all of which were inspired by IS. Five of these, including the December 2014 Lindt café hostage crisis in Sydney, which resulted in two civilian deaths, were perpetrated by radicalised individuals. The other attack was carried out in April 2017 by a pair of 16 year-old boys, who stabbed one civilian to death, and injured three others, before being arrested. While Australian authorities list the likelihood of further terrorist attacks in the country as “probable,” these are more likely to manifest as so- called ‘lone-wolf’ attacks, characterised by relatively low casualties and the use of knives, guns, and homemade bombs.
The bigger a militant network or terrorist cell, the easier it is for the authorities to detect their activities and figure out who is involved. The Etihad plot, for example, involved militants both in Australia itself and the Middle East. Given this enlarged militant network, cooperation between the Lebanese and Australian security services allowed them to identify and arrest the Khayat brothers. With attacks by radicalised individuals, there is generally less information to work with, making them harder to detect and prevent. Regardless of its actual level of involvement, IS will remain more than happy to continue to claim credit for future attacks on Australian soil.