Crisis in Marawi: A New Islamic State Foothold?

On 23 May 2017, approximately 500 militants invaded Marawi City, located on the Philippines’ southern island of Mindanao, prompting President Rodrigo Duterte to declare martial law across the entire region. The siege came in response to a failed government operation against Isnilon Hapilon, a local commander of the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) and the Islamic State (IS)’s so-called emir in Southeast Asia. So far, 376 people, including 285 militants, 65 soldiers, and 26 civilians have been killed in the ongoing battle for control of the city. An estimated 300,000 local residents have also been displaced by the fighting and some media outlets have described the city as an “apocalyptical ghost town.” While initial fighting involved the ASG, the siege on Marawi has highlighted the growing profile of the lesser-known Maute Group. Alleged cooperation between the Maute Group, as well as ASG and Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (BIFF) factions has raised concerns that a coalition of Islamist groups may try and establish an IS foothold in the region.

Initially a family-based clan formed to protect political and business interests, the Maute Group has evolved into a powerful Islamist group. Founded in 2012 by the brothers Abdullah and Omar Maute, both of whom were reportedly educated and radicalised in the Middle East, the group now boasts a militia of over 500 clan members and local youths. Following their return from the Middle East, the Maute brothers reportedly introduced radical IS ideology to the clan. The group allegedly funds itself through contributions from Farhana Maute, the wealthy clan matriarch and mother of Abdullah and Omar, as well s the regional drugs trade and extortion activities. Since declaring allegiance to IS in April 2015, the Maute Group has been linked to numerous recent bombings, including the October 2016 Davao City attack, which killed 14 people. It also has a history of attacking towns in Mindanao; however, the ongoing month-long siege on Marawi is a clear escalation of the Maute Group’s insurgency.

Although the Marawi conflict has significantly raised the Maute Group’s profile, the Philippine and regional governments are most concerned by its growing cooperation with several of Mindanao’s other militant groups. The Maute Group, as well as factions of the ASG and the BIFF, have all declared allegiance to IS. Apart from its shared ideology, the group’s clan-based membership makes it an attractive ally for ASG and BIFF as its familial ties minimise the risk of government infiltration and make it less prone to factionalism than other groups. Evidence of increased cooperation emerged in March 2017 when Hapilon was wounded in a government airstrike on a Maute Group camp in Lanao del Sur. The Philippine authorities suspect that these groups want to establish a IS province in the Mindanao region. Reports suggest that the region is already attracting Islamist militants from around the world with at least 40 foreign fighters reportedly involved in the Marawi conflict. While the majority of these militants are from neighbouring Malaysia and Indonesia, several Middle Eastern nationals, North Africans, and at least one Chechen, were also involved in the fighting. This is fueling fears that Mindanao could become a regional hub for militancy and help IS expand its influence in Southeast Asia.

Given these concerns, Malaysian, Indonesian and Philippine authorities have initiated a series of joint security initiatives aimed at countering the threat. Joint maritime patrols are a key component of these efforts as the region’s notoriously porous maritime borders help militants travel between countries and integrate militant groups into the regional criminal economy. Additionally, the US has stepped up its military assistance to the Philippines, so far in the form of logistical support and training. Duterte’s government has also taken steps to minimise the Maute Group threat, arresting Farhana Maute, the group’s alleged benefactor, and other prominent clan members in June 2017. However, despite these efforts, the threat of an IS presence in the Philippines is set to continue to grow. 

By carrying out an attack of the scale seen in Marawi, the Maute Group is expected to strengthen its appeal to IS leaders and sympathisers. Up until now, IS had taken little notice of the Maute Group’s activities, which were primarily criminal in nature. With IS’s recognition, the Maute Group is likely to be even more attractive to potential recruits from the Philippines and abroad. Furthermore, as IS loses more territory in Syria and Iraq, it is likely to continue to shift its areas of focus. Indeed, in its propaganda campaigns, it has already started encouraging would-be militants from Southeast Asia, as well other foreign fighters, to forego the trip to Syria and instead travel to Mindanao.