Colombia's presidential elections: a referendum on peace
President Juan Manuel Santos, the face of Colombia’s second round of peace talks, has come closer than anyone to achieving peace in a country plagued by civil war since 1964. Santos has pinned his legacy and political mandate to reaching an agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) paramilitary guerrilla group. If reached, this historic agreement would not only significantly reduce the risk of politically motivated terrorism in the country but also include the eradication of coca plantations, the illegal drug trade being a major source of funds for FARC. The peace talks have reached a crucial juncture and many within Colombia are critical of the way in which Santos has moved away from the strong anti-terrorist measures of his predecessor Álvaro Uribe. As such, the presidential elections scheduled for 25 May 2014 provide the perfect opportunity for the people of Colombia to express their approval or otherwise of the changing security dynamic under Santos’ leadership; particularly as the strongest opposition candidate was handpicked by Uribe himself, while the path of this most recent round of peace talks has certainly not been smooth.
Though Santos leads the polls, his victory is not guaranteed due to the high numbers of voters who remain undecided or the potentially one third of voters who will express disapproval by blank voting.
The on-going talks in Havana, Cuba, have a chance of success due to the backing of various regional governments and the international community, the increasing military and organisational vulnerability of FARC, and the less radical demands brought to the table by both groups. Santos’ government has been criticised by the opposition and some political commentators for making too many concessions to FARC and many claim that little has changed since peace talks began. Low level and consistent violence has been on-going since the start of talks 17 months ago. FARC reportedly maintains approximately 8,000 armed fighters across the country and, in 2013, was responsible for over 2,000 attacks (a level of violence which has remained consistent since 2010). In 2013, Amnesty International reported major human rights abuses attributed to the group’s culture of violence and impunity, despite the peace talks. Nonetheless, commentators have noticed shifting tactics away from indiscriminate attacks that generate adverse public reactions in favour of more targeted attacks on government and energy infrastructure and security forces. This suggests that FARC are moving towards more political channels to address their grievances, although ongoing violence will erode public support for the peace process if it continues to be drawn out.
During the Colombian congressional elections held in early March, the governing Social Party of National Unity (la U) kept its majority in the lower and upper houses of Congress. However, Uribe’s new Democratic Centre (CD) party received solid support, securing 20 of 102 seats in the Senate and 19 of 165 seats in the Chamber of Representatives, which has weakened Santos’ coalition. Uribe’s reputation is based on his administration’s successful campaigns against paramilitaries and he has been deeply critical of Santos’ decision to reverse many of these policies and engage in peace talks. Uribe and his supporters have expressed particular dissatisfaction with possibility of an amnesty for FARC fighters. This view was shared by the majority of the Colombian population in recent opinion polls and forms one of the biggest stumbling blocks to the success of the peace talks.
Santos is likely to be elected for a second term in May due to majority support for the peace talks as well as his populist social programmes, which have left Uribe’s candidate Óscar Iván Zuluaga trailing in the opinion polls. Though Santos leads the polls, his victory is not guaranteed due to the high numbers of voters who remain undecided or the potentially one third of voters who will express disapproval by blank voting. The other viable candidate is the Green Alliance’s Enrique Peñalosa who has made recent gains in the opinion polls despite a poor showing at March’s congressional elections. In the case of a runoff, polls suggest that Santos would win against both Zuluaga and Peñalosa, although one poll suggests that in a runoff Peñalosa would win with 41 percent over 36 percent for Santos.
The continuity provided by Santos’ likely re-election remains the biggest driver of success for the current round of peace talks. However, if he is re-elected, the CD’s success in congressional elections means he will face fiercer political opposition to reaching a peace agreement with FARC and opening a possible dialogue with the National Liberation Army (ELN), the second largest insurgent group in Colombia. The main sticking points hindering the talks are the question of an amnesty and the move away from rural coca production. As various groups seek to put pressure on Santos around the election, civil society will likely engage in large-scale demonstrations across the country, raising the prospect of violent unrest. But the real battle will begin after election day.