Colombia's FARC Demobilisation ‘D-Day' Approaches

In 2017, the security and political focus will be centred on the implementation of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) peace deal. In 2016, the government of President Juan Manuel Santos scored a significant political victory by successfully reaching a final peace deal with the militant group. Although the peace deal was passed by Congress in late November 2016, there are a number of details that need to be finalised before the agreement can be implemented. Whilst the government wants to expedite this process, congressional debates on the specific terms of the agreement along with dissent within the militant group could delay the anticipated demobilisation and disarmament of militants. This was scheduled to start in December 2016 and be completed by 30 April 2017. 

In the coming months, Colombia’s two congressional chambers will need to debate and pass legislation concerning the establishment of special peace tribunals and demobilisation areas. As per Colombian law, most terms pertaining to the FARC peace deal require up to four debates (or two in each chamber); but some require eight debates (four in each chamber). Theoretically, this process could take up to 18 months, pushing discussions on the peace deal well into the 2018 presidential election campaign. However, following a Constitutional Court ruling, the government has access to a so-called ‘fast track’ legislative tool, which effectively cuts the number of required debates by half. Using the fast track tool, the government hopes to debate, and pass, all the terms of the FARC peace deal within six months. 

Concerns have also been raised about the demobilisation areas themselves, and dissent within the militant group. Many of the demobilisation areas are allegedly not yet equipped to receive militants, and FARC leaders, fearing arrest, have also refused to start this process until amnesty laws are guaranteed. Reports of paramilitary groups still operating near demobilisation areas, as well as attacks against leftist civil society leaders, further point to growing dissidence among FARC militants. Already in December 2016, the FARC Secretariat expelled five regional commanders for refusing to demobilise. Containing violence in demobilisation areas will therefore be key to preventing any disruptions to the process, as the FARC transitions from a militant group to a political organization.