Closing the Door: Immigration Policy after the Cologne Assaults

Germany’s open-door policy on asylum-seekers is coming under increasing pressure. A series of sexual assaults allegedly committed by refugees of Middle Eastern and North African descent in Cologne during New Year’s Eve celebrations has prompted calls for an end to Chancellor Angela Merkel’s liberal approach to Europe’s refugee crisis. Officials reportedly recorded 516 allegations of violence in Cologne and other cities on New Year’s Eve, 40 percent of which were sexual assaults with two reports of rape. While initial reports from Cologne Police Chief Wolfgang Albers noted that 1,000 North African and Middle Eastern individuals participated in the assaults, police have only officially identified 31 suspects; nine Algerian, eight Moroccan, five Iranian, and four Syrian individuals. Two German citizens, an Iraqi, a Serb and a US citizen are also among those suspected of being involved in the assaults. 

Police descriptions of the Cologne perpetrators as of “Arab or North African origin” have been seized by those calling for an end to Chancellor Merkel’s open-door policy on refugees. Members of the far-right group, Patriotic Europeans Against the Islamisation of the West (PEGIDA), called for a mass rally in Cologne over the assaults where thousands of participants held placards bearing the words “rapefugees not welcome”, effectively assigning responsibility for the sexual assaults to all asylum-seekers. The media has thus far gone to great lengths to avoid trivialising the sexual attacks; however, several outlets, such as the conservative Breitbart news website, have arguably exaggerated the participation of refugees, as well as the degree to which the assaults were allegedly coordinated.

Two other developments have also increased pressure on Germany’s immigration policy. Firstly, German officials disclosed that the man French authorities say tried to attack a Paris police station in an Islamic State-inspired assault in early January had been living at a German refugee shelter. Secondly, at least eight German tourists were killed in a suicide bombing in Istanbul on 12 January; it is believed that the assailant was a Saudi-born Syrian national who had applied for asylum in Turkey a week before the attack. The sexual assaults along with new evidence of security risks linked to refugees have stoked the debate over immigration in Germany, bringing into question whether these incidents will mark a turning point in Germany’s policy.

There has been a marked shift in public opinion towards the issue of immigration since the assaults. According to a 13 January 2016 poll by German tabloid, Bild, only 15 percent of respondents believe that Germany should take in more refugees. While still low, an earlier poll in February 2015 showed that 29 percent of respondents were in favour of immigration from developing countries. Similarly, a January 2016 poll by YouGov found that 62 percent of Germans believe that the number of asylum-seekers is too high, up from 53 percent in November 2015. Furthermore, 49 percent of respondents reportedly fear a repeat of the Cologne events in their hometown.

Initial government responses to the Cologne assaults suggest that Germany may be on the precipice of backpedalling on its refugee policy. While Merkel has thus far refused to revoke Germany’s policy of not having quotas for refugee immigrants, reports indicate that the government has been deporting increasing numbers of asylum-seekers to Austria since the beginning of January. According to government statistics, the daily number of asylum-seekers being turned back to Austria rose from 60 in December to over 200 since the start of 2016.

Policy changes are also being considered; on 13 January, German Justice Minister Heiko Maas outlined plans to make it easier to deport foreigners. The new rules would lower the threshold of criminal offenses for expulsion, allowing authorities to deport offenders found guilty of sexual or physical assaults or resisting police officers. Previously, foreigners could be deported only if they were found guilty of crimes punishable by a sentence of three years or more. These reforms could be passed into law as early as February 2016. Germany’s Justice Minister has also pledged to introduce stricter laws on sexual assaults. A new amendment will enable police to take action when women feel they are being harassed even without the threat of violence.

The Cologne assaults have presented anti-immigration advocates with ammunition to push the incumbent Christian Democratic Union government to adopt more stringent controls on refugees. Far-right groups, such as PEGIDA and the Alternative for Germany (AfD), have called for Merkel’s resignation, pointing to the assaults. Given that Merkel remains popular despite growing concerns over how refugees impact European security, these calls are likely to go unheeded. Nevertheless, the German government is now more likely to devote most of its energy to establishing a deal with Turkey to divert asylum- seekers away from European Union countries. Thus, while human rights groups applauded Germany for accepting 1.1 million refugees in 2015, the door appears to be closing in the face of those seeking refuge.