Since 14 October, thousands of demonstrators have taken to the streets in Barcelona to oppose what they believe are unjustified and unfair court sentences imposed on nine leaders of Catalan’s pro-independence movement. Protesters have set cars on fire, thrown  petrol bombs at police, blocked streets and barred access to public transportation systems. Approximately 700 people were injured - almost half of them police officers – in the violence. At least 200 protesters have been detained while authorities investigate them for public disorder.

Demonstration participants have focused their anger on public facilities. Vandalism has led to millions of euros in damage to public property in Catalonia, and especially in Barcelona. In one notable incident, at least 10,000 protesters blocked the entrance to Barcelona El Prat Airport (BCN), prompting clashes with police, the cancellation of 110 flights, and at least 115 reported injuries. In what began as opposition to court sentences quickly shifted focus, with protesters calling for Catalonia’s independence from Spain. This new wave of unrest in the region comes at a pivotal time for Spain, which heads into general elections in November, amid government fragility and party fragmentation.

THE OLD/NEW ISSUE OF INDEPENDENCE

A strong secessionist movement in the Catalonia region has long been a cause of political tension between the central government and Catalonia. Calls for Catalonia’s independence have been ongoing since the restoration of democracy in Spain in the late 1970s, with a chief complaint being that Catalonia’s tax revenue subsidises other parts of Spain. Around half of Catalonia’s 7.5 million residents are in favour of seceding from Spain to forge a new European country. 

Demonstrations have been peaceful until the Catalan leaders’ sentences were handed out. Tension grew in 2017 when the regional government (Generalitat de Catalunya) unilaterally staged an independence referendum in October 2017, followed by a declaration of independence later that month. The central government declared this move illegal; it withdrew the region’s autonomy and deployed central security services to quell the unrest and detain instigators. Tensions have remained high since, with pro-independence protests in Barcelona drawing hundreds of thousands of participants. Catalonia’s regional president, Quim Torra, has since adopted defiant rhetoric by calling for another referendum to be held within two years.

NOVEMBER ELECTIONS: AN UNTIMELY VISITOR

While Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s centre-left Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) won a parliamentary majority in Spain’s April 2019 general election, it was unable to form an administration due to disagreements with potential coalition partners. Consequently, a new election – Spain’s fourth in as many years – was scheduled for 10 November. However, the elections come at a time of increasing polarisation in Spanish politics, creating uncertainty regarding the future of the government’s relationship with the Catalan administration. Together with the ongoing demonstrations, this renewed focus on Catalonia could swing voters, particularly if the protests escalate.

The threat of Catalan separation has revived long-dormant Spanish nationalism and has even prompted the emergence of Vox, a far-right party, aimed at countering the independence movement. As such, the ideological composition of the next Spanish government will directly affect relations with Catalonia. Neither a centre-left nor centre-right coalition would approve a legally binding independence referendum in Catalonia, which means that the issue will linger. Still, progressive parties assert the need for dialogue with Catalonia, while conservative parties advocate a tougher line. The Popular Party has proposed once again taking direct control of the Catalan government. Vox has gone even further, saying that Spain’s political system, which is based on autonomous regions, should be scrapped and replaced with a more centralised system.

WHERE TO FROM HERE?

A divided electorate and lack of consensus on how to deal with Catalonia suggest that the general election is not likely to place Spain any closer to solving its centuries-old territorial dispute. As the upcoming election will likely lead to a fragmented parliament, Spanish policy-makers will struggle to reach agreements on restructuring the country’s territorial model. If the upcoming government leans towards a pro-nationalist agenda, this will diminish the chances for Madrid and Barcelona to reach a negotiated settlement on the conflict. While the country’s territorial unity is not under immediate threat, Spain’s – and Catalonia’s – future nonetheless remains unclear. Such uncertainty will continue even after the elections, as parties will spend weeks, if not months, negotiating agreements. This process will also potentially leave the country under the direction of yet another caretaker government, that will probably postpone any meaningful policy decisions. Many of the country’s growing political fragmentation has become increasingly visible, even more so since the latest Catalan crisis. Whichever government ultimately takes the lead, it will walk into a political quagmire; amid ongoing demonstrations for separatism in Catalonia, the next administration in Madrid will also face a range of political, economic and foreign policy challenges, not least the country’s uneven economic recovery.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

Civil unrest will likely continue in the coming weeks, manifesting as protests, strikes, and disruptions to transport infrastructure. This will mostly occur in Barcelona, with more isolated unrest taking place in other Catalonian cities. Counter-protests by prounity activists and right-wing groups are likely to be staged more frequently, which elevates the threat of violent clashes between rival protesters. While the frequency and impact of protests are likely to subside in the longer-term due to attrition associated with extended protest periods, significant developments relating to the imprisoned Catalonian leaders, and the elections, will likely provoke sporadic eruptions in protest activity. If the situation in Catalonia threatens to disrupt the November elections, the central government may choose to interfere directly as it did in 2017, by employing central security forces to suppress the protests, or by terminating the regional parliament. Such decisions could prompt a major increase in violent protests. 

Amid growing anger among secessionists, a political stalemate has ensued, and the threat of violent unrest is elevated. A continued stalemate, coupled with political manoeuvres between Madrid and Barcelona, is only likely to prolong the ongoing uncertainty.

COMMERCIAL IMPACT

Continued unrest in Catalonia could negatively impact the economy, especially in Barcelona. During the independence crisis in 2017, approximately 4,000 companies based in the region relocated their headquarters to other parts of the country. The tourism sector – which accounts for 12 percent of the Catalan economy – suffered, dropping around 15 percent in revenue during the first two weeks of October 2017. Most recently, the economic activity in the city centre – from shops, hotels and restaurants – is estimated to have fallen by between 30 and 50 percent in the week after the Catalan leaders were sentenced, either because fearful customers stayed away, or businesses closed to avoid being looted. About 70 restaurants had their outdoor terraces destroyed as rioters burned chairs and parasols on the barricades, causing around USD 2.2 million in property damage. According to the government, ports, railways and airports have lost around USD 4.9 million collectively. Altogether, about 175,000 travellers were affected by cancellations or delays caused by road blocks.