Brazilian Elections: A vote for change?

Brazilian general elections will be held on 5 October 2014 amid high levels of speculation by national and international observers. Coverage of anti-government protests in June 2013, as well as during the 2014 FIFA World Cup, has focused attention on the country. Add to this the death of presidential candidate Eduardo Campos and a dramatic, last-minute surge in the polls for his (rather more formidable) successor Marina Silva, October’s elections are set to be some of the most hotly anticipated and contested in the country’s history. With Brazil’s economy recently dipping into recession, the elections are well-timed for voters to express their dissatisfaction with the country’s direction.

Despite the well-documented, and violent, civil unrest seen last June, the elections are expected to pass peacefully. There is no historic precedent for social disorder during general elections in Brazil. Further, unrest seen in 2013 and 2014 was non-partisan, reflecting the perception amongst ordinary citizens that any government will be unresponsive to their diverse demands, thus reducing the risk of political violence after the election results are announced. Localised incidents of low-level civil unrest are possible in the more remote regions in the north of the country, but these are likely to concern local political feuds, as opposed to national issues. 

Of most interest to an international audience are the presidential elections. Three strong candidates have emerged in the run-up to election day. President Dilma Rousseff is running for re-election representing the centre-left Worker’s Party (PT), which has led various coalition governments since 2003. Silva, who assumed the leadership of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) in August 2014, is campaigning on a dynamic platform of a “new agenda”. Finally, Aécio Neves, head of the centrist Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), is seen as pro-business and fiscally responsible. A mid-September poll run by Datafolha puts Rousseff in the lead with 37 percent of the vote, followed by Silva with 30 percent and Neves with 17 percent. A second round runoff between the top two vote gatherers is scheduled for 26 October. The same poll puts Silva’s chance of winning the second round at 46 percent, ahead of Rousseff with 44. Taking into account the inaccuracies of polling in Latin America, it is clear that Rousseff’s re-election is far from guaranteed. 

Voting is mandatory in Brazil, despite the fact that the country’s geography makes polling stations difficult to access in many areas. This creates a powerful electoral demographic. Of an electorate of 140 million, 21.4 percent are living below the official poverty line. Amongst the poorest members of the population, Rousseff’s popularity is unlikely to have taken a serious battering as a result of the recession, which won’t affect employment or increase social insecurity in the short term.

The PT’s conditional cash transfer programme, known in Brazil as the Bolsa Família, which provides cash handouts to families for ensuring that children attend school and are vaccinated, has solidified support for Rousseff across the country. This is particularly true in the north and northeast, where the population is largely poorer and less educated than the south. Despite support for the PT, Silva too has popular appeal. She was born into extreme poverty, is of mixed race and did not learn to read until she was 16 years old, making her identifiable to the nation’s poor. Silva has promised to continue the Bolsa Família, refuting claims by Rousseff that the programme hinges on her re-election.

The grievances which sparked last year’s protests are largely middle-class concerns, such as high levels of corruption, poor infrastructure, and deficiencies in health and education. The growing middle-class demographic may seek an alternative government to address their grievances. Here too, Silva, though an unknown quantity, stands out as an attractive candidate. Amongst the business community, there is a strong desire for a President who will implement more responsible economic policies and restore investor confidence. As such, this demographic is more inclined to vote for Neves and the PSDB; however, a sense of practicality along with a desperation for change may encourage these voters to align with Silva and the PSB.

Whoever you talk to, it’s clear that economic concerns, whether on a micro or macro level, are key to the elections and political stability in Brazil. The result will likely come down to whether a presidential candidate can channel the rising tide of anti-establishment sentiment into votes for change, or whether the electorate will opt for the perceived stability and security of the incumbent government’s anti-poverty programmes. While the debate is being played out on the podium and not in the streets, the country’s politicians are doubtless feeling the pressure from the electorate for concession, competition and change.