Angola after dos Santos: One year on

João Lourenço’s first 12 months as president of Angola have been characterised by a strong anticorruption movement, dismantling the regime of José Eduardo dos Santos – who ruled from 1979 to 2017 – and trying to revive the Angolan economy. Lourenço’s aggressive stance against corruption and swift action against key members of the former ruling family earned him the nickname “the Terminator” in local media and his initial attempts to diversify the economy and introduce economic reform were praised by the likes of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. In elections in early September, his power was further consolidated via his nomination as head of the ruling People’s Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA), replacing dos Santos. 

ECONOMIC REFORMS 

Despite the early praise, Lourenço’s efforts to revive the economy have been less effective than hoped. In a country where nearly everything is imported, reduced oil prices have starved local banks of foreign currency and resulted in a liquidity crisis. This – coupled with lower than expected growth, lower government revenues and rampant inflation – has resulted in a balance of payments crisis that forced Angolan finance officials to approach the IMF in August for a $4.5 billion financial assistance programme in exchange for on-going financial and economic reform. From an external perspective this move is seen as encouraging because it will increase transparency and provide reassurance to investors who will gain a more in-depth view of the country’s financial health. The technical assistance from the IMF will assist in stabilising international currency reserves, identifying key risks to financial markets, and improving supervision and regulation of the banking system. Other key focus areas of the IMF intervention will likely include fiscal consolidation to ensure debt sustainability, increased private sector participation, and accelerating diversification efforts. Other economic and financial measures such as the unpegging of the Angolan kwanza from the US dollar in January and the lifting in April of a law requiring foreign investors to have local partners, are making Angola more attractive to foreign investors. 

ANTI-CORRUPTION DRIVE 

In terms of addressing corruption and dismantling the complex systems of patronage that became endemic under dos Santos’ 38-year rule, the outlook is mixed. According to Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, Angola has been one of the 20 most corrupt countries in the world for the past 10 years. It is alleged that Lourenço was handpicked by dos Santos because he was corrupt and enriched himself through graft while serving as an Angolan army general, the MPLA’s secretary-general and the Angolan defence minister. When Lourenço came to power in September 2017 it was assumed that he would play the role of a puppet president, but he immediately started removing dos Santos loyalists and other high profile officials and replacing them with individuals who were loyal to him. He removed central bank governor and dos Santos loyalist, Valter Filipe, fired dos Santos’ daughter, Isabel, from state-owned oil and gas company Sonangol and dismissed his son, Zenú as the head of the Angolan sovereign wealth fund. 

Lourenço dismissed a further 60 government officials on the basis of corrupt activities and nepotism. He also replaced the boards of several state-owned companies loyal to dos Santos and the treasury director at the finance ministry, who was accused of embezzlement and sent to jail. Lourenço dismissed the chief of staff of the armed forces, replacing him with one of his most trusted supporters, Antonio Egidio de Sousa Santos. In addition, the former foreign intelligence chief, Lieutenant General André de Oliveira João Sango, was removed from his position and replaced by a reported Lourenço loyalist. In sum, the majority of Lourenço’s key appointments have been associates of his.

GENUINE INTENT? 

The actions taken so far by Lourenço have meant that, anecdotally, the culture of bribery is losing its appeal and Angolans are warier of paying or receiving even small-scale bribes. Despite these efforts it is not yet clear whether Lourenço has sufficient political will to make the changes needed to roll back the damage caused by years of corruption and mismanagement under the dos Santos regime. Opposition figures have raised concerns that his actions are a way to consolidate power and pave the way to install his own authoritarian regime after the 2020 elections and there has been considerable pushback from the dos Santos family who remains hugely influential. The jury remains out on whether this represents a watershed moment in the Angolan government’s appetite for reform. By the time of the 2020 elections, the extent of Lourenço’s determination to root out corruption, and the success of his financial reforms, should be plain to see.