Afghanistan's presidential race teeters on the brink
The first round of Afghanistan’s presidential elections saw a high voter turnout and relatively low levels of violence. The second round, however, was marred by claims of corruption and vote-rigging. A US-brokered agreement, involving the audit of all votes cast, avoided the establishment of a breakaway government but has been undermined by walkouts on both sides. As international forces look to downsize their presence in the country, Afghanistan can little afford further political uncertainty. Getting the election process right and nominating a president broadly accepted as legitimate will be crucial to the country’s stability, with implications for the wider region and beyond.
The two competing presidential candidates are Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai. In the first round, Abdullah and Ghani received 45% and 32% of the vote respectively and, in the second round, 44% and 56%. However, suspicions were raised when the voter turnout increased between the two rounds from 6.6 million to a record 7.9 million. Reminiscent of 2009, when Abdullah withdrew from a presidential runoff against Hamid Karzai over alleged electoral fraud, Abdullah’s supporters have threatened to reject the result and establish a parallel government.
The candidates come from contrasting backgrounds. Abdullah, Afghan Foreign Affairs Minister from 2001 to 2005, is a medical doctor and former Mujahideen and anti-Taliban fighter. Ghani, by contrast, left Afghanistan in 1977, studying at Colombia University before working as an academic and World Bank economist. He later served as Afghan Finance Minister from 2002 to 2004. His policy-making background may equip Ghani better for diversifying Afghanistan’s economy and reducing its dependence on the drug trade and foreign aid. Both men declare themselves pro-Western and have pledged to sign a strategic security agreement, providing for 10,000 NATO troops to remain in Afghanistan after 2014.
A new president in Kabul will rely on outside financial and practical assistance that will only come if the president is recognised by the international community and has the domestic support to balance conflicting ethnic and national interests.
The candidates’ ethnic alliances have a significant bearing on Afghanistan’s future security. Abdullah is affiliated with Afghanistan’s Tajik minority, winning an absolute majority during the first round in the country’s ethnically mixed north. Ghani is associated with the Pashtun community, the largest ethnic group in Afghanistan from which the Taliban derive. There are concerns that, if Abdullah loses, he and his supporters will feel disenfranchised from the political process and reject the result. A loss for Ghani, however, could alienate aspects of the Pashtun community and weaken government influence in the south and east where the Taliban are strongest. Both candidates are allied with powerful Afghan warlords with militias at their disposal. With the drawdown of international forces by the end of 2014, heightened ethnic and regional factionalism would come at precisely the wrong time for Afghanistan.
Since assuming lead responsibility for nationwide security in June 2013, Afghan National Security Forces have conducted the majority of security operations independently, with only logistical support and advice from international forces; the relatively low incidence of terrorist attacks during the election demonstrates the progress made. However, the Taliban are still undertaking major ground offensives in outlying areas of the country and there are frequent fatal terrorist attacks in Kabul. UN figures show that the number of civilian casualties for the first half of 2014 increased 24% on last year. A new president in Kabul will rely on outside financial and practical assistance to manage these challenges, support that will only come if the president is recognised by the international community and has the domestic support to balance conflicting ethnic and national interests.
As international forces withdraw from Afghanistan, regional relationships will become more prominent. In recent years, Pakistan has been accused of harbouring Afghan militants and undermining Afghan security; conversely, the rise of domestic terrorism in Pakistan has prompted Islamabad to levy similar criticisms, accusing Kabul of allowing Pakistani fighters to base themselves on the Afghan side of the disputed border and sponsoring militancy in Pakistan’s tribal regions. Governance of the porous Afghan-Pakistan border is unlikely to improve in the foreseeable future, offering a potential safe-haven to international terrorist groups and allowing for a destabilising traffic of refugees between the two countries.
On 24 July, the election audit was restarted and, whilst further disruptions seem likely, the indications are that a new president will be appointed by the autumn. Still, the challenges facing Afghanistan are great and, for the next president, balancing ethnic and political interests will be key to a unified and governable Afghanistan.