Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death, two months after his failed mutiny against the Russian state, poses yet another setback for the Wagner mercenary group. While likely to see significant change closer to home, the impact on the group’s operations in Africa will not be immediate, writes Saif Islam.
With Ukraine’s long-awaited counteroffensive in southern and eastern Ukraine now under way, pressure will build on Kyiv to demonstrate its forces can make strategic gains and prove to its Western allies that it can win the war. Richard Gardiner discusses the nature of the task at hand, and measures what success and failure would look like for Ukraine.…
As Russia steps up offensive operations, Ukraine will have to endure a nervous wait for vital western military aid, including tanks, that will boost their own ability to stage a counteroffensive in the spring. Richard Gardiner discusses how both sides are under pressure to succeed and considers the trajectory of the conflict over the coming months.
Since the 24 February Russian invasion of Ukraine, over 10 million people have been displaced by the conflict. Military, humanitarian, and financial assistance have flooded the country, but with crises mounting elsewhere, Natasha Glazer and Tamsin Hunt investigate the potential realities for increased global competition for aid.
Warfare between states has undergone a continuous evolution; from first, second and third generation warfare which comprised traditional combat, to the fourth generation characterised by the growing involvement of non-state actors like terrorist groups, through to the fifth and current generation (5GW) driven by the digital age and a ubiquitous battlefield…
Amid the ongoing war in Ukraine, Richard Gardiner and Saif Islam explore the subtle implications for Russia’s traditional sphere of influence.
Asees Bajaj unpacks the drivers of geopolitical tensions and the complexities underlining global power dynamics, zooming in on what they mean for business in 2023.
The latest skirmishes between Armenia and Azerbaijan are not only reflective of the historic difficulties in achieving peace but also of some new obstacles to a permanent truce, write Tamsin Hunt and Saif Islam.
Wrongful detention continues to be a threat for foreign nationals travelling to high-risk jurisdictions. Richard Gardiner discusses the politics behind the practice and assesses who faces the greatest threat of being wrongfully detained.
Recent high-profile deaths of journalists have brought to light the dangers members of the profession face when doing their jobs. Markus Korhonen looks more closely at the global security environment for media workers.
Amid Russia’s ongoing military offensive in Ukraine, security incidents in Transnistria – the Russia-backed breakaway region located between Moldova and Ukraine – have made headlines. Such developments are unlikely to impact the Ukrainian conflict, but remain a source of concern for Moldova, writes Richard Gardiner.
Russia’s close ally Kazakhstan’s neutral stance on the invasion of Ukraine is strictly driven by its national interests, but any deterioration in relations with Russia could have implications for Kazakhstan’s political stability in the longer term, writes Saif Islam.