The long-delayed arms deal trial of former President Jacob Zuma is a symptom of factionalism and the history of impunity within the ruling African National Congress (ANC). Darren Davids writes that the successful prosecution of corrupt officials may not be enough to ease decades of simmering public frustrations.
Facing its most acute demonstrations since gaining independence in 1991, Kazakhstan witnessed a crucible of political tensions at the start of the new year. While police violence and the presence of foreign peacekeepers seem to have subdued the momentum of the popular protests against the country’s ruling elite and oligopolistic structures, Osob Dahir…
While 2021 appears to show a decrease in attacks targeting aid workers, especially compared to 2020, the deteriorating security environment in several countries suggest the positive trend may not continue in 2022, writes Darren Davids.
The arrests of Canadian businessman Michael Spavor and former diplomat Michael Kovrig in China in December 2018, just days after Huawei’s chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou’s arrest in Vancouver, were undoubtedly linked. Despite China’s espionage allegations against the pair and their subsequent convictions, they were released shortly after Meng was…
With a resurgence of kidnapping in 2021 following a Covid-19-driven hiatus the previous year, Markus Korhonen looks at some of the emerging trends in kidnapping, and how those are likely to be sustained over the coming twelve months.
With the continued increase in global vaccination levels, travel bans are easing as countries restart their tourism sectors. Erin Drake writes that while travel dynamics may look a little different in 2022, the usual security threats remain.
Democracy is at risk and the threat of political violence is on the rise write Gabrielle Reid and Gala Riani. According to the Global State of Democracy 2021 report, more than a quarter of the world’s population reside in ‘democratically backsliding’ countries. Together with those living in outright non-democratic regimes, these jurisdictions make up…
The Covid-19 pandemic and its knock-on effects have driven protests worldwide since 2020. Erin Drake writes that protests over climate change, anti-vaccine mandates and anti-austerity measures will remain disruptive, and in some cases gain ground through 2022.
Darren Davids writes that terror plots in Europe and the US will continue to manifest as traditional lone-wolf attacks in 2022. However, in weaker states in Africa and the Middle East, porous borders, security vacuums and a lack of governance will continue to enable the spread of Islamic extremism.
2021 saw a number of key developments on the war front, from Afghanistan’s fall to the Taliban to the dramatic turnaround in Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict. With little in terms of resolution to armed conflicts across the globe, 2022 is likely to see war remain a major threat in parts of Asia, Africa, Middle East, the Caucasus, and eastern Europe, with…
Recent threats of secession made by Milorad Dodik, the Serbian representative of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s three-person presidency, have stoked fears about the potential for renewed conflict in the region. Darren Davids writes that Dodik’s comments are simply aggressive posturing and are unlikely to prompt renewed violence.
The killing of environmental defenders in developing countries is not only a growing human rights crisis but also bad for business, writes Saif Islam.