ARTICLES
Kidnapped in Oromia: The growing threat of the OLA
Amid an increase in kidnappings in the Oromia Region driven by the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), Richard Gardiner analyses the modus operandi of the OLA and who is most at risk.
Amid an increase in kidnappings in the Oromia Region driven by the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), Richard Gardiner analyses the modus operandi of the OLA and who is most at risk.
Attacks on members of the LGBTQIA+ community in Serbia and South Africa in 2023, as well as increasing anti-homosexuality and transgender legislation internationally, have raised fears of an increased targeting of sexual minorities. Jervin Naidoo considers the impact of these incidents on travel security.
With the recent attack on four US nationals in Tamaulipas attracting significant attention from the US government, media and public, concern over Mexico’s travel security environment is mounting. Erin Drake considers the current threat landscape, and argues that some of the regional drivers are likely to sustain – and in some cases escalate – the danger…
Two years after the 2021 military coup, Myanmar’s political and security crisis shows little sign of easing. Richard Gardiner discusses why neither the military nor resistance groups currently possess the requisite capabilities to gain the upper hand.
The ‘Aragalaya’ protest movement that brought about a change of leadership in 2022 has largely dissipated, although anti-government sentiment remains prevalent. Tamsin Hunt identifies some of the key drivers civil unrest in Sri Lanka in 2023.
Massive countrywide anti-government protests have been ongoing in Israel since 7 January. While the immediate trigger for the protests was a series of proposed judicial reforms, Jervin Naidoo discusses how these reforms are in fact rooted in fears of substantial changes to the long-term political and economic stability of Israel.
Protests in Peru have been ongoing since the December 2022 arrest of former president Pedro Castillo. As the country enters its fourth month of unrest, Jervin Naidoo explores the impact on Peru’s mining sector and the knock-on effect for global copper prices.
As Russia steps up offensive operations, Ukraine will have to endure a nervous wait for vital western military aid, including tanks, that will boost their own ability to stage a counteroffensive in the spring. Richard Gardiner discusses how both sides are under pressure to succeed and considers the trajectory of the conflict over the coming months.
The escalating energy crisis in South Africa has far-reaching consequences beyond the lengthening daily power outages. Tamsin Hunt investigates how electricity shortages, coupled with tariff increases, will drive civil unrest risks over the coming year.
In 2022, countries faced geopolitical changes that have had disastrous consequences domestically, leading to economic crises, political turbulence, and social instability. Erin Drake writes that a combination of existing and emerging challenges will continue to drive unrest in 2023 as governments face a rapidly evolving threat landscape.
Since the 24 February Russian invasion of Ukraine, over 10 million people have been displaced by the conflict. Military, humanitarian, and financial assistance have flooded the country, but with crises mounting elsewhere, Natasha Glazer and Tamsin Hunt investigate the potential realities for increased global competition for aid.
Warfare between states has undergone a continuous evolution; from first, second and third generation warfare which comprised traditional combat, to the fourth generation characterised by the growing involvement of non-state actors like terrorist groups, through to the fifth and current generation (5GW) driven by the digital age and a ubiquitous battlefield…