Who Done It? The Insurgent Link in the Southern Thailand Bombings

On 11 and 12 August numerous provinces in southern Thailand, including Phuket, Trang and Surat Thani, were hit by a series of bombings and arson attacks that targeted police and tourist sites. There were at least 12 attacks in less than 24 hours involving either improvised explosive devices or arson in eight southern provinces. At least four people were killed and 35 others, including foreign nationals, sustained injuries. Within hours of the attacks, authorities ruled out the involvement of transnational Islamist militant groups. Instead, officials have indicated that the perpetrators are homegrown and that many of those involved came from Thailand’s Muslim-majority southern provinces. 

Thailand’s security was rocked further when, following the first set of explosions, several bombings were reported in the Deep South. The most significant attack occurred on 23 August when twin bombings occurred outside a hotel in the Muang district of Pattani Province; one person was killed and 30 others sustained injuries. Prior to this, on 21 August an 80kg explosive device was found and neutralised in Rueso district, Narathiwat Province. Security officials have denied that these two spates of attacks are connected, but it seems likely that the subsequent bombings can also be attributed to southern insurgents. No group has claimed responsibility for the incidents, but since Thailand’s insurgents generally do not issue statements after attacks, this is not unexpected.

For decades, Malay Muslim rebels have waged a low-level insurgency against the Thai government as part of their campaign to re-establish an independent sultanate in the Deep South. More than 6,500 people have been killed since the insurgency intensified in 2004. The government has forcefully sought to align Malay Muslims with the Thai national identity since the 1930s, by suppressing any form of regional linguistic, cultural or religious autonomy in the south. These actions have given rise to an ethno-religious insurgency, largely concentrated in an area commonly referred to as the ‘Deep South’, three provinces in the far south of Thailand towards its border with Malaysia. In retaliation against the government, separatist rebels regularly stage shootings and bombings against military forces and government assets. Despite attempts at peace negotiations, near-daily attacks continue to occur in these areas. 

The August attacks are likely to be a reaction to Thailand’s recent referendum, which endorsed a new constitution and gave the military extensive political powers. Since coming into power in the 2014 coup, the junta has paid little attention to peace negotiations with insurgents, and Muslim Malays voted unequivocally against a constitution that would guarantee the military a secure place in politics. In the build up to the constitutional referendum held on 7 August, there was a surge in insurgent-related attacks in the Deep South, but since the Thai public voted in favour of the constitution, the military is set to retain a significant political role even after general elections in 2017. The latest attacks targeted areas that voted strongly for the new constitution, and are ultimately an embarrassment for the junta, which promotes itself as the only entity capable of ensuring peace and stability in the country.

Insurgents have a history of staging multiple well-orchestrated attacks across expansive areas and targeting entertainment districts and shopping centres to undermine confidence in the tourism industry, one of Thailand’s largest income generators. Analysis of the modus operandi and forensic evidence obtained after the first set of attacks has led authorities to believe that insurgents are responsible. The use of small explosive devices detonated in pairs, one after another, is a typical insurgent technique and many of the apparatuses recovered are similar to devices employed by southern rebels. This is also not the first time that insurgents have ventured beyond the Deep South. For example, a 2014 car bomb on the holiday island of Koh Samui, and a foiled 2013 attack outside a police station in Phuket were linked to the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), a prominent insurgent group.

So far, the haphazard nature of the investigations is reminiscent of the inquiry conducted after last year’s explosion at the Erawan Shrine, in central Bangkok. In a rush to provide answers, the government issued contradictory statements both denying and confirming the involvement of insurgents. This has given rise to questions over the competency of the country’s security forces. Nevertheless, in just under two weeks of investigations, on 22 August, security officials announced that they believe that a group of 20 insurgents is behind the first set of attacks. The announcement followed the issuing of an arrest warrant for Ahama Lengha, a Muslim man from Narathiwat province who has a history of being involved with insurgents. The warrant for his arrest was issued after his DNA records matched some of the evidence found at the site of explosions at the popular tourist resort of Hua Hin. Since Leghna is believed to be hiding in Malaysia, Thai officials are working closely with Malaysian authorities to apprehend him. Adding to the suspect list, on 24 August, authorities acquired an arrest warrant for Ruslan Baima, who, like Leghna, hails from the Deep South; he was also a suspect in the 2012 attack at a hotel in the southern city of Hat Yai. 

In the short-term, the latest bombings are likely to undermine confidence in the tourism industry, although to date tourism has proved very resilient in the face of Thailand’s security challenges and natural disasters. Despite last year’s Erawan Shrine bombing when 20 people died and more than 120 were injured, by the end of 2015 Thailand was the most popular tourist destination in Southeast Asia with a record number of just under 30 million foreign visitors. This year, the country was aiming for a record-breaking 32 million foreign visitors with a projected revenue of close to USD 70 billion. However, in light of the latest attacks, the Tourism Authority of Thailand has estimated that 100,000 to 200,000 travel cancellations can expected by the end of the year with the industry likely to lose around USD 300 million in revenue.

Since the political turmoil following the 2014 military coup, the Thai economy has struggled to recover, and tourism is one of the few drivers of growth. Aware of the country’s dependence on the industry, authorities have prioritised portraying Thailand as a safe place to visit. This has involved increasing security across tourist sites and colourful campaigns and initiatives to promote Thailand as a secure and welcoming holiday destination. In addition, Thai officials have cleared blast sites quickly to present a business as usual image to overseas visitors. More importantly, officials need to act decisively to apprehend the perpetrators to assure foreigners that Thailand has capable security forces. This will also help to allay fears that the recent attacks could be indicative of a heightened terrorism risk beyond the Deep South.