Even as President Claudia Sheinbaum pursues a more targeted security strategy to address cartel-related violence and improve protection for key commercial sectors, organised crime and violence continues to threaten personnel, operations and revenue in Mexico.

Insecurity and violence

The reach of powerful groups like the Cartel de Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG) was evident in its February 2026 retaliation against the capture of its leader, Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, or ‘El Mencho.’ El Mencho’s death in custody triggered a backlash across multiple states, including Jalisco, Michoacán and Guanajuato, involving ‘narco-blockades’ (road blockades using burning vehicles) and clashes with National Guard and military personnel. While the CJNG’s retaliation was short-lived, with most violence easing after 24 hours, such actions have been common practice for years in response to local security operations, posing safety risks to civilians and businesses in affected areas – particularly transport drivers, as trucks are commonly hijacked and set on fire to blockade roads.

Targeting cartel leadership structures can have longer-term consequences; the potential now exists for infighting and splintering to drive greater violence as the CJNG reconfigures its leadership structure. These dynamics became apparent following the arrest of Sinaloa Cartel leader, Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada, by US authorities in Texas in July 2024; subsequent internal disputes prompted a violent battle in September 2024, and an ongoing war between the cartel’s two main factions in Sinaloa State. In municipalities like Concordia in Sinaloa State, where ten mineworkers (including engineers, technical staff and security personnel) were kidnapped in January 2026 from a gated compound, the conflict between the now-fragmented cartel’s Los Chapitos and La Mayiza factions has led to a severe breakdown in the security environment, with former company contractors describing armed men in pickup trucks and armoured vehicles roaming the area in which the company’s operations are located.

Age-old threats

As Sinaloa infighting persists and the CJNG faces possible instability in its ranks, decentralised violence could see new conflicts emerge in contested areas in the coming months as disputes and new alliances form. In Mexico’s already heightened threat landscape, such insecurity could create opportune environments for other activities like kidnapping and extortion as groups look to assert territorial control and establish revenue streams.

A 'new' familiar approach

Since taking office in October 2024, Sheinbaum’s security strategy has maintained former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s emphasis on social upliftment, but adopts a more aggressive approach to law enforcement, facing significant pressure from the US to curb cartel activities and cross-border fentanyl flows. Sheinbaum has sought to expand enforcement operations, increase intelligence coordination between agencies, and work with US authorities. This has accelerated the seizure of drugs and arrests of key cartel figures like El Mencho, and – according to Sheinbaum’s administration – resulted in the lowest homicide rate since 2016.

However, several factors will continue to challenge this strategy in the coming months; leadership decapitation operations risk further fragmentation of major groups, with reporting suggesting that some of the CJNG’s rivals in Guanajuato, Michoacán and in the north have already sought to bolster their presence in the group’s territory. Cartels also remain highly adaptable, diversifying illegal activities, like extortion, to remain competitive, and coopting and colluding with figures within government, law enforcement, state institutions and the commercial sector. A further threat of US drone strikes looms amid similar operations in Ecuador coordinated with the country’s military. Mexican cartels have reportedly stockpiled anti-drone and other military-grade weapons in anticipation of such actions, and should strikes occur, they remain significantly more capable of retaliation.

Addressing organised crime and the wider security environment in Mexico will require systemic change. While Sheinbaum’s strategy may yield some statistical improvements, the potential for unpredictable escalations and new frontiers in cartel rivalries and violence will remain a key security challenge in the operating environment in the coming years.