Political Evacuation in Africa

With conflicts on the continent continuing to fluctuate in intensity, political evacuation will remain a prominent concern for operating in Africa over the coming year. In 2015, Western governments issued evacuation orders for Burundi and the Central African Republic (CAR), with temporary ‘authorised departure’ of non-essential embassy personnel and their families issued in Chad and Burkina Faso. With 14 countries heading to the polls in the coming months, coupled with ongoing conflicts in Burundi, the CAR, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Mali, Nigeria, South Sudan and elsewhere, 2016 is likely to usher in greater operational uncertainty across the continent. While government-issued evacuation orders remain a key determinant for many businesses to evacuate staff, the often underlying political nature of these orders and the diversity of company employee bases can lead to additional complicating factors during an emergency situation. It is thus becoming increasingly necessary to bolster pre-emptive operational capacities to limit unforeseen evacuation costs. 

The threat of civil war is likely to remain a key driver of political evacuation this year. In South Sudan, despite signing a peace agreement in August 2015, South Sudanese President Salva Kiir and former vice president and rebel leader, Riek Machar have been unable to secure sustainable peace in the war-torn country. While a transitional government has been formed, it remains vulnerable to collapse. Further south, Burundi also appears to be teetering on the brink of renewed violence following controversial elections in July 2015 which saw incumbent President Pierre Nkurunziza secure a controversial third term. Since then, the country has become increasingly polarised. Many international media sources have warned of an impending civil war imitating similar Hutu/Tutsi divides seen in the previous civil war between 1993 and 2005. For now, the conflict remains political and Nkurunziza is keeping opposition at bay, with reports of extrajudicial killings. Yet, with underlying societal divisions in addition to a fractured army, an escalation appears unavoidable.

The growth of Islamist militancy in West Africa and the Sahel is an additional factor that needs to be monitored for political evacuation. In particular, the Nigeria-based Islamic militant group, Boko Haram’s penetration of Cameroon, Chad and Niger has placed these territories on key watch lists for further violence in 2016. Moreover, despite overcoming its leadership crisis in 2015, following the ousting of longserving leader Blaise Compaoré in October 2014, Burkina Faso, together with Mali, is emerging as a new frontier in the fight against Islamist militancy in the southern Sahel.

Contested elections are also likely to raise security alerts across the continent. Key among those heading to the polls in 2016 include, Uganda, the DRC and the Republic of Congo where long-term leaders, Yoweri Museveni, Joseph Kabila and Denis Sassou Nguesso are keen to secure another term despite growing popular opposition. 

The year also marks the end of Somalia’s optimistic Vision 2016 plan that paved the way for popular elections; however, it seems increasingly unlikely that the Federal Government will be ready to preside over a general election, presenting an opportunity for renewed unrest. The year ahead in sub-Saharan Africa will continue to present an operating environment where risk versus reward will need to be continually assessed. Staying abreast with developments on the continent remains a vital component to operations.