Despite President Gustavo Petro’s flagship ‘Paz Total’ (Total Peace) policy, which favours government negotiations with militant and criminal groups over traditional military-led efforts, Colombia’s armed groups have continued to expand and multiply across the country, fuelling an explosion in attacks targeting civilians, security forces and state infrastructure, as well as clashes with rival groups. Since mid-2025, this wave of terrorist style attacks has heightened criticism of Petro’s approach to security and increased concerns of violence in the lead up to the country’s March 2026 general elections.

Escalating violence in 2025

Petro introduced his ‘Total Peace’ policy in 2022 in the hope that it would achieve lasting peace with militant groups, where previous governments’ use of military campaigns have failed. However, the policy has had limited success. Militant groups like the Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) and breakaway factions of the former Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), who reject the group’s 2016 peace deal with the government, have continued to expand their territorial control. In August, several violent and brazen attacks by FARC rebels raised concerns of escalating violence, including, for example, the shooting down of a police helicopter in Antioquia Department during a security operation to eradicate coca crops, which killed 12 officers. In a separate suspected FARC attack, a vehicle-borne bomb near a military school in Cali killed six people and injured 71 others. Armed groups have also been deploying an expansion of tactics and have increasingly conducted attacks involving improvised explosive devices, including through the use of drones laden with explosives. The drones are also used for surveillance and enable militant groups to expand beyond traditional battlefields and increasingly target or intimidate civilians, as well as facilitate extortion and kidnapping for ransom schemes to generate revenue.

Shortcomings of the policy

Petro’s administration has acknowledged that ‘Total Peace’ has largely failed to create significant improvements to the security landscape. As he approaches the end of his term in 2026, Petro has attempted to modify the policy again through various measures, including by introducing unification zones, which aim to establish state presence in areas most affected by conflict, including Catatumbo Region in Norte de Santander Department and Roberto Payán in Nariño Department, so that negotiations towards demobilisation can continue with armed groups. On the other hand, during this year, Petro has also suspended negotiations with groups where talks have repeatedly broken down, raising the bar to re-entry and refocusing military action on such groups. With others, negotiations have been stopped completely, and factions have been designated as terrorists, enabling the government to take increased military action. However, despite the more aggressive posturing that critics of his policies have been calling for, a more militarised response also threatens to provoke retaliatory violence.

A struggling military

Petro’s shifting approach, which leans increasingly on the use of military pressure to encourage armed groups to cooperate, has highlighted the challenges facing Colombia’s military. Although Petro has increased military spending, the bulk of these funds have gone to increasing the stipend paid to conscripts in efforts to improve recruitment and retention of soldiers. Petro has also created alternatives to the compulsory service, which all 18-year-old men are required to complete, including participating in social-service projects instead. Subsequently, despite the stipend increase, numbers have fallen from 242,000 in 2012 to 181,000 in 2025, limiting the number of troops that can be deployed to insecure areas. Additionally, a lack of funding in other areas, including the military helicopter fleet, crucial for operations in Colombia’s mountainous and forested terrain, has been degraded, with two-fifths of the fleet grounded over spares shortages or in need of maintenance. The military is now unable to carry out more than one airborne operation at a time, complicating the execution of Petro’s reformed security policy.

Security outlook ahead of 2026 elections

Colombia has a history of violent elections driven by the presence of criminal and militant groups seeking to elect favoured candidates or prevent the appointment of those who may interrupt their activities. However, while election related violence has in recent years manifested mostly in regional polls, the assassination of Senator and presidential aspirant Miguel Uribe in mid-2025 has raised fears of political violence at a national level in the upcoming general elections in March 2026. Ultimately, the country remains unlikely to return to the levels of violence seen in the 1980s, when three presidential candidates and several senior officials were assassinated on orders from notorious drug lord Pablo Escobar or his peers, but the increasingly brazen attacks by FARC rebels or ELN militants has put authorities on alert.

Election related violence is likely to be felt more in the congressional elections and in rural areas, where limited state presence and a reduced budget for the Consejo Nacional Electoral (National Electoral Council, CNE) will increasingly expose these communities to vote buying and extortion. The start of the election calendar typically prompts an escalation in violence, as militants often seek to block candidates from registering or collecting signatures needed for their campaigns. Already, between January and July 2025, around 100 violent attacks targeting political leaders have been reported, particularly in Antioquia, Bolívar, Cauca and Valle del Cauca. Further, although previous elections were cancelled over heightened concerns of violence by militants – which did ultimately not come to fruition – many of these votes took place amid ongoing ceasefires with dominant groups like the ELN, for example in 2023. With few such ceasefires remaining intact, and multiple negotiations suspended completely, there is now little to prevent a further escalation of violence.