By-elections and national ballots: Looking ahead to Kenya's 2017 election

On 7 March, two highly anticipated by-elections were held in Kericho and Malindi. Although the opposition party, the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD), convincingly retained its coastal stronghold of Malindi, the current Jubilee government’s significant victory in Kericho has resulted in a strengthening of the ruling coalition’s 2017 general election ambitions. Furthermore, the by-election served to cement Deputy President William Ruto’s important role in the Jubilee’s upcoming general election campaign through his ability to rally the support of many Kalenjin voters. 

The Kericho by-election was by no means a done deal. Credible speculation suggested that Gideon Moi, from a revitalised Kenya African National Union (KANU), would use his own Kalenjin credentials to dampen Ruto’s support base. However, his campaign aimed at capitalising on disaffected voters proved unsuccessful. Moi also had to combat the collective memory of his father, Daniel arap Moi’s rule, president from 1978-2002. In contrast, Ruto steered much of the Jubilee’s campaign in the region and was effective in his efforts to appease voter dissatisfaction with the lack of development in the region under the Jubilee administration, successfully securing a victory for the Jubilee candidate, Aaron Cheruiyot. While Moi has been clear in his ambitions to replace Ruto through his public support of incumbent President Uhuru Kenyatta’s 2017 candidacy, Ruto’s status as de-facto-leader of the Kalenjin communities and Kenyatta’s running mate appears to be very much intact. Furthermore, the 5 April decision by the International Criminal Court to drop its case against Ruto over alleged crimes against humanity during Kenya’s 2007/2008 post-election violence, has secured Ruto’s future in the country’s political arena. 

It is clear that under President Kenyatta and Deputy President Ruto, the Jubilee administration is eager to present a unified front in the upcoming 2017 election. Although the CORD victory in Malindi has been seen as detrimental to the Jubilee’s coastal campaign offensive, the opposition coalition continues to be plagued by infighting and a haemorrhaging of defectors to the Jubilee coalition, such as former CORD Chief Whip Gideon Mung’aro, among others. Furthermore, reports suggest a growing distrust between the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM); the Wiper Democratic Movement and the Forum for the Restoration of Democracy, over the ODM’s demand to again nominate Raila Odinga as their single presidential candidate. 

As it stands, the Jubilee government is in a favourable position to secure another term under Kenyatta and Ruto.  Yet, Odinga’s CORD are unlikely to give up. They will be keen to capitalise on current allegations questioning the impartially of the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) and are likely to gain a stronger footing should cases of high-level corruption occur. In light of this, a peaceful 2017 election is not yet guaranteed, despite the Jubilee’s strong position. 

Nevertheless, many are already looking to the 2022 elections having largely accepted a Jubilee victory. The 2022 election offers a new playing field for Kenyan politics, with President Kenyatta ineligible to partake and Ruto keen to secure his own term as president.  While the March Kericho by-election demonstrated Ruto’s ability to retain Kalenjin support, it remains uncertain whether he will be able to effectively capture Kenyatta’s former Kikuyu base and the 2022 campaign may indeed prove to be a more turbulent one.