A Party's President: South Africa's political future under a divided ANC

April has proved to be a turbulent month for South Africa, with an impulsive cabinet reshuffle on 31 March 2017 prompting unprecedented calls for mass mobilisation against incumbent President Jacob Zuma. While the public’s reaction to President Zuma’s politicking is indicative of growing frustrations in the country, it is increasingly clear that the ruling African National Congress (ANC) remains at the helm of South Africa’s political future. Ultimately, external pressures, including worsening socio-economic conditions and public protests, surrounding President Zuma’s compromised rule are proving ineffective in manufacturing change and the ruling party will likely look inward to determine a way forward. However, a divided ANC means that key players will first need to fight for control of the party before South Africa’s trajectory can be determined.

The current ANC leadership, or rather part thereof, has been unmoved by the economic consequences of its recent actions, notably the latest cabinet reshuffle; the 11th since President Zuma took office in 2009. The reshuffle, which saw changes in key portfolios, including the removal of admired Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan, ushered in new political uncertainties that international credit rating agencies claimed they could no longer tolerate. In the days that followed, both Standard & Poor and Fitch downgraded South Africa’s sovereign debt rating to ‘junk’ status. Neither agency has since been appeased by new Finance Minister Malusi Gigaba’s efforts to ensure policy continuity. The fallout of this latest reshuffle, however, is likely to have a long-term impact on South Africa’s economic trajectory, particularly on government expenditure and the administration’s ability to conciliate income inequality. Alongside reports of worsening corruption and government inefficiency, requisite socio-economic development efforts have ultimately been choked. A coinciding crisis in South Africa’s Department of Social Development in 2017 over the payment of social grants to the country’s most vulnerable has further demonstrated this, as it has revealed corrupt ties between the ministry, the ruling administration and the private sector. This model is suspected to exist across numerous government arms; yet, the current administration’s response to these allegations has been paltry.

Cases such as this, coupled with growing reports of alleged ‘state capture’ pertaining to significant political interference by a prominent Indian family, known as the Guptas, has led to a new impetus for protests calling on President Zuma to step down. Led by both civil society groups and opposition parties, recent protests seen in Johannesburg, Pretoria and Cape Town in April have demonstrated a new degree of unity. However, historical and economic divides, combined with ideological differences between opposition parties, such as the centrist Democratic Alliance and far-left Economic Freedom Fighters, mean that unity is likely to be short-lived and mass mobilisation will likely be compromised by worsening populist rhetoric aggravating tensions along social divides. This will likely limit public pressure facing President Zuma by jeopardising the fragile sense of popular unity that is already weakened by entrenched economic rifts.

As such, while socio-economic grievances are expected to worsen and people may take to the streets to demand that President Zuma step down, any leadership change in the ANC is only likely to take place within the party itself. The ANC’s leadership has already demonstrated a precedent to internalise current criticisms to portray party unity ahead of its National Conference in December - a platform widely seen as the most procedurally appropriate for any leadership change. However, amid growing public criticism, the ANC itself has become divided over the political trajectory of the country. President Zuma and his supporters are eager to hand over the party reigns to someone in the incumbent’s camp, most likely former head of the African Union, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, as such a victory will ensure the continuation of the status quo. However, the move will not be accepted by ANC reformists wary of growing public criticism of the party and the impact this could have on the ANC’s 2019 election ambitions. In this regard, key players, including Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, ANC Treasury General Zweli Mkhize and even ANC Secretary General Gwede Matashe, will be eager to shore up competition against the pro-Zuma camp to protect the integrity of the party.

The political and economic future of South Africa has therefore been reduced to party politics as the ANC’s two camps, and their respective backers, battle it out for control of a party that paved the way for a democratic South Africa. Some commentators assert the ANC may not survive its current divides, leading to breakaway factions from either losing side. Regardless, it is clear that the ANC is at its weakest at a time it will need to make one of its biggest decisions regarding the trajectory of South Africa.