Will the Centre Hold? Key Security Challenges in Buhari's Second Term
It came down to a two-horse race between incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari and former vice president Atiku Abubakar. Yet, amid a surprisingly low voter turnout of 35.5 percent and the unexpected one-week delay in holding the poll, President Buhari successfully edged ahead in the votes, securing a second term in the 23 February presidential elections. Atiku Abubakar and his People’s Democratic Party (PDP) have been quick to dismiss the election results and will likely challenge the outcome in the courts. A legal challenge to his victory is not the only test President Buhari will face in his second term. Having first campaigned on a platform of bringing security to Nigeria and ending corruption in the country back in 2015, President Buhari will need to do more to appease the public this time around.
Boko Haram and Islamic State's West African Province (ISWAP)
President Buhari had enjoyed some success in his first term in office. Although he was too quick to claim that the Islamist militant group, Boko Haram, had been ‘technically defeated’ in the north of the country, ongoing counterinsurgency efforts, coupled with internal splintering, pushed Boko Haram out of key territories. In addition, deaths attributable to Boko Haram have significantly decreased since President Buhari took office in 2015 (see Figure 1).
More recently, however, both Boko Haram and the IS-linked faction, ISWAP, appear to have made a resurgence amid a revised strategy targeting key military bases in the north. In 2018, for example, the group successfully attacked 70 percent of the military positions in its operational areas, similar to 2014 levels before the percentage of successful Boko Haram attacks against military positions fell to 50 percent in 2015. In one 2018 attack on a military base in Metele, Borno State, at least 100 soldiers were reportedly killed. Boko Haram and ISWAP have also sought to bolster their weapons capabilities over the past year, seizing weapons during raids on military bases at a time when morale among Nigerian troops is at an all-time low. These successes demonstrate that the everresilient Boko Haram is increasingly prepared to engage the Nigerian military in more conventional warfare and President Buhari will need to be ready to combat this as of yet undefeated force.
Intercommunal Violence in the Middle Belt
Although President Buhari’s administration was able to curb fatality numbers in the northeast of the country, conflictrelated deaths have been on the rise in the Middle Belt. In 2018 alone, at least 2,000 people died in communal violence. This marks a significant increase in fatalities, given that 3,600 people have died in total in the region since 2016. Much of the violence has been attributed to increasingly militarised Fulani herdsmen who, armed with assault rifles, have laid havoc to numerous villages in Nigeria’s Kaduna, Plateau, Nasarawa, Benue, and Taraba states. The rise of reprisal attacks by pastoralist communities raises concerns over intensified civil conflict.
In 2018 alone, at least 2,000 people died in communal violence.
With key stakeholders like the Middle Belt Forum, a regional socio-political group backing Atiku in the elections, it is unclear how much political influence President Buhari will have to secure a negotiated settlement to the violence. This is despite Buhari’s All Progressive Congress (APC) securing Kaduna and Nasarawa in the election. Meanwhile, the PDP secured Plateau, Taraba and Benue, adding new divides to this contested region. Furthermore, the inadequate deployment of security forces has encouraged the formation of vigilante militias, and a failure by authorities to bring those responsible to justice aggravates the cycle of violence.
Militancy in the Niger Delta
Although unrest in the Niger Delta has significantly decreased since the March 2016 emergence of the Niger Delta Avengers (NDA), it remains uncertain if a brokered truce will persist. Vice President Yemi Osinbajo made key inroads with militant groups, mending much of the damage from President Buhari’s previous military clampdown. However, militants will likely identify an opportunity to leverage any wider instability to secure greater concessions amid ongoing talks with the government. PDP victories across the Niger Delta states in the February vote point to President Buhari’s unpopularity in the oil rich region, and governorship elections slated for 9 March will be another agitator for anti-Buhari sentiment in the Niger Delta. Already, in a likely ploy to leverage political uncertainty, the NDA has vowed to cripple the Nigerian economy if President Buhari secured a second term. While this does not necessarily translate into an immediate threat of renewed sabotage attacks against oil infrastructure, a return to attacks remains feasible as militants become increasingly frustrated with the Buhari administration.
A Tough Road Ahead
Amid a range of political and economic challenges ahead, President Buhari will also need to prioritise security. With battles taking place on several frontlines across much of the country, his approach will need to be measured and sufficiently resourced. Yet, given a patchy track record thus far, there remain several questions around his readiness to do so.