On 25 August, Baloch separatists led by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) staged a series of coordinated attacks that killed at least 40 civilians, soldiers and police officers in the restive Balochistan province. It was one of the largest operations in the history of the Baloch insurgency spanning more than seven decades. The simultaneous attacks involved raids on police stations, blocking of highways, followed by the burning of vehicles and the killing of workers from Punjab Province and the destruction of railway tracks linking the province to the rest of the country and Iran. The escalation occurred in the context of rising terror attacks in Pakistan since mid-2021. While Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has promised to “fully eradicate terrorism” from Balochistan in response to the attacks, several obstacles are likely to hinder these efforts, prolonging the disruptive effects on commercial operations.

Unresolved grievances on the Baloch frontier

Successive Pakistani federal governments’ failure to address the root causes of the insurgency is one of the key factors in the ongoing violence. Baloch insurgents have long complained of political marginalisation and opposed foreign investments, particularly Chinese projects, citing the alleged unfair exploitation of the province’s vast natural resources, including gas, coal, and copper. Despite these resources, Balochistan remains Pakistan’s most impoverished province. These grievances have led to numerous attacks on security forces and to a lesser extent, Chinese projects, personnel, and workers from Punjab, Pakistan's most politically and economically influential province. The military’s response to the insurgency has been marked by severe human rights abuses, such as extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances. Peaceful protests against these violations have often been met with violent crackdowns, further intensifying local grievances and driving more people to join insurgent groups.

The Taliban: Old friends, bad neighbours?

The Baloch insurgency and terror attacks in wider Pakistan have escalated since the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in August 2021. The US military left behind around USD 7 billion worth of military equipment and weapons, including M16 machine guns and M4 rifles. Some of these weapons ended up in the hands of groups like Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Baloch separatists, significantly enhancing their lethality. Pakistan has also repeatedly accused the Taliban, a longstanding, albeit complex, ally, of allowing these groups to use Afghan territory as a base for launching attacks. In response, the Taliban highlighted the difficulty of policing the vast and rugged border areas between the two countries exploited by the TTP, and instead mediated talks between Pakistan and the TTP. However, Pakistan also suspects the Taliban is not interested in tackling the issue given its ethnic Pashtun population and ideological ties with the TTP. The Taliban’s primary focus is also on countering the direct threat posed by Islamic State Khorasan Province, which diminishes the urgency of addressing Baloch separatists and the TTP, as these groups refrain from conducting attacks within Afghanistan.

Navigating the storm within

The increased spillover threat from Afghanistan has coincided with growing domestic crises in Pakistan, complicating the authorities’ response to the deteriorating security situation. Since former Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted in April 2022, the government and military have cracked down on his allies and supporters. Despite this, Khan remains widely popular, and the current coalition government holds a slim majority in parliament, lacking widespread legitimacy. Economic challenges pose an additional concern, with Pakistan narrowly avoiding a debt default in 2023 thanks to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout. In response to IMF demands for reforms, the 2024/25 budget aims to raise USD 46.66 billion in tax revenues – a 40 percent increase from the previous fiscal year. There have been numerous protests and strikes over these tax hikes. These dynamics have made it difficult for the authorities to respond effectively to the rising security issues in Balochistan and the country more broadly.

Challenging operating environment

The escalating security situation has created a hostile environment for commercial operations, particularly the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Pakistan’s largest foreign investment initiative. Baloch separatists and TTP militants continue to target Chinese personnel and projects in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, causing delays to key projects. For example, the 25-26 August attacks delayed the opening of a Chinese-funded airport in Gwadar, Balochistan, until a security review is completed. While China remains committed to CPEC, it is increasingly frustrated by Pakistan’s inability to ensure adequate security, raising concerns over future delays and potential reductions in investment. In June, senior Chinese official Liu Jianchao warned that “security threats are the main hazards to CPEC cooperation.” Pakistan’s complex combination of political, economic, regulatory, and security challenges has also led several Western firms – particularly in energy, pharmaceuticals, and telecommunications – to exit the country in recent years.

No easy road ahead

Pressure from foreign investors has already led Pakistan to strengthen security around key projects, while counter-insurgency operations are expected to continue in the foreseeable future. However, the military’s heavy-handed tactics are unlikely to resolve the complex and deep-rooted issues fuelling the militancy threat. For example, the Baloch insurgency, partly driven by political and socio-economic grievances, cannot be resolved by force alone; it requires innovative policymaking to tackle its underlying causes. Failing to address these factors will make it difficult for Pakistan’s security forces to sustain stability, leaving the country vulnerable to further unrest.