Reports of Israeli drone strikes in Sinai highlight ongoing challenges of insurgency

Increased security co-operation between Egypt and Israel came into focus over the reporting period, with reports emerging on 11 July that Egypt has sanctioned multiple drone strikes by Israeli forces on suspected militant targets in Sinai in recent years.  Periodic claims of drone activity in northern Sinai from local witnesses have emerged over the past year, with suspicion of Israeli involvement, but neither Cairo nor Jerusalem have ever commented on the suggestions, making these reports, if true, the first confirmation of this level of military co-operation.

The statements, made by a retired senior Israeli official, were reported against the backdrop of an official visit to Israel by the Egyptian foreign minister, Sameh Shoukly on 10 July – the first such visit in nine years. It reportedly formed part of broader preparations for a summit between Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi at the end of this year to discuss renewed efforts to broker peace talks between Israel and Palestine. 

The discussions during the visit have put the spotlight on Egypt’s efforts to re-gain its influence as a regional power broker, which has waned in the past five years due to its political instability following the Arab Spring protests, as well as subsequent disputes with regional members such as Qatar. However, it is more likely that the main priority driving an increase in security co-operation between the two countries is the threat posed by the Islamist insurgency in northern Sinai. 

The insurgency is being led primarily by the Islamic State’s (IS) affiliate in the Sinai Peninsula, Wilayat Sinai (WS), which is based in the northern corner of the Sinai Peninsula and is estimated to have between 1,000 and 1,500 members.  WS, which previously operated under the name Ansar Beit Al Maqdis (ABM), pledged allegiance to IS in November 2014. Until this point, the group focused both on targeting the Egyptian security forces as well as Israeli targets, in addition to broader symbols of Egypt-Israeli co-operation, such as oil and gas pipelines in the Sinai. However, after its pledge of allegiance, WS’ operational methodologies and targeting patterns evolved to reflect the more global objectives of Islamic State’s ideology. This change in targeting patterns also saw a shift in focus away from Israel, in line with Islamic State’s argument that Palestine should not be the primary cause of jihadists.  However, widespread reports of the smuggling of arms and resources through tunnels between Sinai and Gaza, facilitated by Hamas, have re-ignited concerns in Israel over the threats to its security stemming from the Sinai.

While the rapid rise in WS’ operational capabilities seen in 2015 appears to have been scaled back to some degree in 2016, largely by the Egyptian government’s heavy-handed crackdown against the insurgency, militant attacks against security vehicles and personnel, including the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs), are still frequently reported. Despite claims from the Egyptian government that its military operations against the insurgents in the region are making progress, the frequency of these reports counterbalance this narrative, and suggest instead that the Sinai insurgency has been more difficult to contain than the government is prepared to acknowledge. This week’s reports, which confirm a level of military co-operation between Egypt and Israel described as “unprecedented”,  lend weight to this suggestion. While it is likely that the security co-operation between the two countries is likely to remain understated and less public, given the Egyptian population’s enduring antipathy towards Israel, the likelihood of security ties between the two countries strengthening further remains high, and indicate that both countries perceive the threat from the Sinai insurgency as one that requires more advanced and coordinated security measures than have so far been achieved.