Indonesia's Break from the Past

On 21 August, the Indonesian Constitutional Court declared Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widowo, leader of the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), winner of last month’s general election, with just over 53 percent of the vote. This announcement brought to an end the legal challenge by Prabowo Subianto, the losing candidate, and concluded a precarious period for the world’s largest Islamic state. 

Prabowo was the establishment’s candidate: an ex-general, a past minister and former son-in-law of long-standing dictator Suharto, he had extensive contacts and support from Indonesia’s political and business elite. He also came with a tainted human rights record from his time commanding Indonesian’s Special Forces. On the campaign trail, he advocated strongly nationalist economic policies and was aggressive in his criticism of foreign investment. 

The more restrained President-elect Jokowi could not be more different from the gilded machismo of Prabowo. Born in a riverbank slum, Jokowi’s victory represents the first time since the fall of Suharto’s dictatorship that someone from outside the entrenched political elite has risen to power in Indonesia. Jokowi started out as a furniture maker in the city of Solo before commencing a meteoric rise to become the city’s mayor and subsequently the governor of Indonesia’s capital, Jakarta, in 2012. He draws much of his support from the poor and middle classes and has a reputation for being pragmatic, humble and non-corrupt, as reflected in his campaign slogan of ‘Honest, Clean, Modest’. 

For a month and a half after the election, it was unclear which of these two men would become Indonesia’s seventh president. Both candidates claimed victory based on quick counts of votes on the evening of 9 July, despite most independent pollsters indicating a Jokowi win. Prabowo withdrew from the tallying process on 22 July, shortly before election commission announced Jokowi’s victory, alleging ‘North Korean levels’ of fraud had taken place. He launched a legal challenge shortly afterwards. With Prabowo’s supporters launching large protests throughout Jakarta, many feared the situation would turn bloody. 

Although national elections have been largely peaceful for the last 15 years since the end of Suharto’s dictatorship, Indonesia has a long history of political violence. The previous regime was bookended by bloodshed. An anti-communist purge led to the deaths of over 500,000 people between 1965 and 1966, many of them ethnic Chinese. In May 1998, the internal struggle to succeed the Suharto regime was accompanied by widespread arson, rape and murder through Java, with over 1000 people killed over an 11 day period. Prabowo himself has been accused of orchestrating much of the rioting and condoning kidnappings and torture.

Indonesia’s public and international investors will breathe a sigh of relief that violence has been averted, but Jokowi still faces significant challenges over the months ahead. Economic growth in Indonesia has fallen to its lowest level for almost five years, and high levels of poverty have encouraged a climate of protectionism. High taxes introduced on the export of unprocessed minerals in a bid to encourage the development of domestic refineries have led US mining giant, Newport, to take legal action against the Indonesian government. Many other investors are just moving their money elsewhere.

Meanwhile, expensive energy subsidies create a heavy burden on the state. The subsidies are economically unsustainable but political dynamite: previous attempts to phase them out led to nationwide street protests. Jokowi hopes to persuade incumbent president Yudhoyono to take the political hit; he is in talks with Yudhoyono to urge him to increase fuel prices in September, a month before Jokowi’s inauguration. Any changes will have to be introduced gradually, though, to avoid harsh jolts to living standards or businesses.

Jokowi also faces a number of major political challenges. Although Prabowo’s camp conceded defeat on the night, there is little doubt that it will continue to oppose Jokowi. It is likely that Prabowo’s post-election behaviour, including his withdrawal from the election race and his vituperative, ill-tempered speeches, have cost him significant support. Indeed, polling indicates that if the election were held today, Jokowi would win comfortably. However, Prabowo still holds enough political support to cause trouble. Parties loyal to Prabowo hold 63% of the People’s Representative Council, Indonesia’s lower house, so he is well-placed to block the passage of legislation. Jokowi will have to forge new alliances to ensure the proper functioning of government can continue. This will include bolstering support amongst members of his own party, many of whom resent him as a provincial upstart with no place in Indonesia’s established hierarchy. 

The election outcome is good news. When Jokowi is inaugurated on 20 October, Indonesia will have a leader who has risen through the ranks on merit, not on his connections. However, despite his strong record in local politics, Jokowi lacks the experience of national government, especially when it comes to defence and foreign affairs. How he will handle himself as a leader on the world stage remains to be seen.